ASML earnings preview: Set for fresh all-time highs?

July 16, 2024

By ForexTime 

  • ASML ↑ over 40% year-to-date
  • Shares could move 5.7% % ↑ or ↓ post-earnings
  • Machinery bookings & forward guidance in focus
  • Technical levels – 1120 and 1000

Shares of ASML have been on a tear this year, surpassing the $1000 and 1000 milestone across both exchanges.

Note: ASML shares can be traded on the Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq exchanges. 

Its position as the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment has allowed it to benefit from the A.I. frenzy with shares up over 40% year-to-date.

Prices could push higher depending on how investors react to the latest earnings report.

  • When will earnings be published?

ASML will report its earnings for the second quarter before US markets open on Wednesday 17th July.

  • Market expectations:

The company is expected to post earnings of €3.74 compared to €4.93 a year ago.


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Quarterly revenues are seen falling to €6 billion from €6.9 billion in the prior year – equating to a 13% decline.

  • Why is this important?

As a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, its earnings and forward guidance may serve as a gauge for the AI hype.

In the first quarter, ASML disappointed investors with revenues declining by 21% year-over-year to €5.3 billion. While sales are expected to fall in Q2, much focus will be on net machinery bookings which are estimated to be around €4.56 billion. Still, growing demand for AI Chips may translate to a significant increase in new orders.

  • Potential challenges…

China is ASML’s biggest market, accounting for 49% of total sales in the first quarter of 2024.

However, this may be impacted by Dutch licensing requirements and US export restrictions. A noticeable decline in total sales in China may weigh on the business outlook.

  • How will ASML react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a 5.7% move, either Up or Down, for ASML stocks on Wednesday post earnings.

  • What does this mean for prices?

A 5.7% move up from $1062 will take ASML shares to fresh all-time highs beyond $1120.  

While a 5.7% move down will send prices back towards the psychological $1000 level.

  • Keep an eye on TSMC’s earnings

Watch out for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) which is due to release its earnings on Thursday 18th July. 

TSMC accounts for 28% of ASML’s revenue, so better-than-expected earnings from TSMC may boost ASML’s shares and vice versa.

  • Technical picture

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

  • A solid set of earnings and forward guidance that satisfies investors could push prices to all-time highs beyond 1120.
  • If the manufacturer of chipmakers disappoints, prices could slip back towards the 1000 psychological level.


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