15 Feb

The prospect of higher interest rates increases the likelihood of a recession in the US this year

February 15, 2023

By JustMarkets

The US indices traded yesterday without a single dynamic. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) Index decreased by 0.46%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.57%. The latest consumer price data showed that the US inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also falling from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Inflationary pressures are declining, but not as quickly as the US Fed would like. Because of this, expectations for the Fed’s final interest rate may rise slightly, which would create a favorable environment for the US dollar and government bonds and an unfavorable situation for stock indices. The prospect of higher interest rates also increases the likelihood of a US recession this year, as rising short-term yields reflect investor fears of slower economic growth.

NVIDIA (NVDA) shares closed up more than 5% after Bank of America said Nvidia is in a winning position to lead the “AI arms race.” Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was also a source of optimism for tech companies, as the data analytics company’s share price rose by 21% after it reported its first quarterly earnings. Shares of some Asian tech companies came under pressure from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa), which dumped most of its Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) shares and increased its stake in Apple Inc (AAPL).

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) increased by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.70%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Tuesday up by 0.08%.

Eurozone GDP rose by +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The European Commission’s winter economic forecast, released yesterday, said the EU economy is set to avoid a recession, but “headwinds persist.” In additional positive news, the inflation forecast has been revised downward. Overall inflation is projected to fall from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024 in the EU. In the euro area, it is projected to decline from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and to 2.5% in 2024.

The UK Consumer Price Index fell from 10.5% to 10.1% (forecast 10.3%) in annual terms. Core inflation fell even more sharply, from 6.3% to 5.8% (forecast 6.2%). Such data on the back of a strong labor market may provide the Bank of England with at least one more 0.25% rate hike at its next meeting.

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Oil prices decreased by 1% on Tuesday as traders worried about supply growth as data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a large increase in crude inventories. Another inventory report from the US Department of Energy will be released today, which is considered more significant. Rising inventories, in most cases, are a factor in lower oil prices. But sometimes, it does not work due to a more complicated oil price formation mechanism.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.89%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up by 0.18%.

The Japanese government on Tuesday introduced Kazuo Ueda to parliament as a candidate for the next governor of the Bank of Japan, suggesting the academic and former Bank of Japan policymaker will replace Haruhiko Kuroda. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish central bank among the G7 countries, is facing market pressure to adjust its policies. Ueda’s comments in parliament will be scrutinized for any signs of a shift away from the current adaptive monetary policy. Kuroda’s second five-year term ends April 8 after a decade marked by strong monetary easing, and his current deputies, Masayoshi Amamiya, and Masazumi Wakatabe will leave their posts on March 19.

Shares of Australia’s four biggest banks (Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp, National Australia Bank Ltd, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd) fell Wednesday after Commonwealth Bank, the largest of them, noted a potential worsening of credit conditions due to pressure on consumers from high-interest rates and overheated inflation.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,136.13 −1.16 (−0.028%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,089.27 −156.66 (−0.46%)

DAX (DE40) 15,380.56 −16.78 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,953.85 +6.25 (+0.079%)

USD Index 103.25 −0.10 (−0.09%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 02:15 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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