01 Sep

Global inflation continues to rise. EU countries are one step away from closing tourist visas for Russians

September 1, 2022

By JustForex

At the close of the US stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.88% (monthly result-3.93%). S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.78%(-3.97% for the month). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.12% (monthly result-0.15%). Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed would need to raise the federal funds rate to just above 4% by early next year and hold it at that level for a while.

The jobs data from the Labor Department will be released on Friday. It is expected to show that the nonfarm payrolls report will show an increase of 300,000 as July saw an increase of 528,000. Another strong report is likely to further reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue its excessive rate hikes after three consecutive 75 basis point hikes.

Canadian GDP for the second quarter showed that the economy grew by 3.3% annually versus an expected 4.4%. The inflation component was also 3.3% versus expected 3.1%.

European stocks were mostly down on Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) fell yesterday by 0.97% (monthly result – 4.78%), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.37% (monthly result- 4.84%), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.17% (monthly result -2.46%), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day with negative 1.05% (monthly result -1.74%).

Inflation in the Eurozone reached  9.1% annually (the forecast was9.0%, the previous month -8.9%). In Italy, inflation hit a 37-year high of 8.4%. Consumer prices continue to rise due to a surge in energy prices. In contrast to the US, Europe has not yet been able to cope with this problem. As a result, ECB policymakers have started talking about a possible ECB rate hike of 0.75% at the September 8 meeting. Nevertheless, after August’s inflation data came as no surprise, the ECB may opt for another 50 basis point increase

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According to Fitch Ratings, global inflation continued to rise in the second quarter of 2022, even though the quarter began at already significantly higher interest rates. The monthly data shows that the pressure continues to intensify in the third quarter of 2022.

In the second quarter of 2022, France’s GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ after negative 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022.

Britons are preparing for a recession, and consumers are doing everything they can to save money. With rising inflationary pressures, businesses will undoubtedly also tightly control spending and profit margins where possible., Thus,a wave of layoffs and rising unemployment may also join the energy crisis. But there is one positive factor – the cost-of-living crisis and the rising cost of credit have put the brakes on British house prices as the demand has fallen sharply.

“I don’t remember 1943 German tourists traveling, for example to Britain or other countries of the world for leisure purposes,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said yesterday. The EU countries are actively discussing the closure of tourist visas for Russians.

Also, yesterday the EU decided not to recognize Russian passports issued in the seized Ukrainian territories.

Oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday amid investor fears that the global economy may slow down further due to renewed restrictions in China. There are fears that demand will collapse as interest rates rise and inflation fears engulf global economies. The Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively called OPEC+, said it now sees a surplus of 900,000 BPD of oil this year, 100,000 BPD more than predicted a month earlier. Some OPEC+ members are calling for production cuts to stop oil prices from falling. The group’s next meeting is on September 5.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.34% (-0.65% for the month), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.03% (-1.05% for the month), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at 0.16% (-1.97% for the month).

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,955.00 −31.16 (−0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,510.43 −280.44 (−0.88%)

DAX (DE40) 12,834.96 +126.18 (+0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,284.15−77.48 (−1.05%)

USD Index 108.69 −0.09 (−0.08%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at  5:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

    • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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