On Thursday, the US stock markets showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.11%. Despite the negative finish, the market managed to significantly trim the losses recorded in the first half of the session. A reason for local optimism was the report that Iran, together with Oman, is developing a technical protocol for monitoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This news gave investors hope for a partial restoration of trade routes, which somewhat cooled panic sentiment. In the corporate sector, the main focus was on Tesla, whose shares plunged 5% after the release of disappointing electric vehicle delivery data for the first quarter of 2026.

On Thursday, the Mexican peso (MXN) lost the progress achieved the day before, weakening to 17.88 per dollar. Fundamental pressure on the peso intensified due to the actions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). At its latest meeting, the regulator resumed its easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision was made by majority vote (3 to 2) amid clear signs of a slowdown in the Mexican economy at the start of 2026. The fact that the central bank cut rates despite accelerating inflation signals a prioritization of economic growth over price stability, reducing the peso’s attractiveness for carry‑trade strategies.

European stock markets mostly dropped yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.69%. The shift in sentiment occurred after Donald Trump’s address, which did not provide the expected specifics on de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Traders also took into account the factor of the long weekend, as European exchanges will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations, prompting many market participants to close positions in advance.

On Thursday, the Swiss franc (CHF) traded at 0.80 per US dollar, holding near its lowest levels since mid‑January amid the dominance of the US currency as the world’s primary safe haven. Despite the franc’s traditional status as a defensive asset, investors are favoring the dollar. Core inflation in Switzerland accelerated in March to an annual high of 0.3%, which slightly eased pressure on the SNB regarding policy easing, as rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf have begun to offset the restraining effect of the strong national currency on import costs.

On Thursday, silver prices (XNG) collapsed by nearly 5% to 71 dollars per ounce, marking a total decline of more than 20% since the start of the conflict on February 28. The sharp plunge in the precious metal was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar after Donald Trump’s address, in which he promised to deliver an “extremely strong strike” on Iran in the coming weeks instead of the de‑escalation plan expected by the markets. The absence of a clear exit strategy from the war and Tehran’s denial of rumors about requesting a ceasefire forced investors to seek refuge in the US currency, which traditionally puts downward pressure on dollar‑denominated assets.

WTI crude prices surged by 11%, breaking above 111 dollars per barrel. This is the highest level in almost four years. An even more dramatic situation unfolded with the North Sea Brent blend, whose price broke above 140 dollars per barrel, approaching the historical record of 2008. Such a sharp spike occurred as markets reassessed the scale of threats to global supply due to the escalation of the military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The main catalyst for the rally was Donald Trump’s tough statements, in which he promised to intensify strikes on Iran’s military and energy infrastructure in the coming weeks if Washington’s conditions are not met. Tehran responded with counter‑threats, instantly erasing yesterday’s optimism. Against this backdrop, the United Kingdom initiated large‑scale negotiations with dozens of countries to form an international coalition to ensure the security of trade routes. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance is urgently considering the possibility of increasing production quotas to calm market panic. However, experts warn that in the short term, even additional oil volumes will not reach consumers as long as physical access to key regional terminals remains blocked or under threat of attack.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) showed negative dynamics on Thursday, falling below 2.81 dollars per MMBtu. Quotes approached the lows of August 2025, sharply contrasting with the rally in the oil market. The main driver of the decline was the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which recorded a larger‑than‑expected increase in storage inventories. During the reporting week, energy companies injected 36 billion cubic feet of gas, significantly exceeding both the figure for the same period last year (30 billion) and the five‑year average (only 4 billion). At the moment, total US gas inventories have reached 1.865 trillion cubic feet. This is 5.4% above last year’s level and 3% above the five‑year average. Such a surplus creates a reliable “safety cushion” for the US domestic market, offsetting the impact of global geopolitical instability.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.06%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) slightly strengthened to 6.88 per dollar, although the pace of growth slowed compared to the previous session. Investors cautiously welcomed the news that Iran and Oman are developing a protocol for “transit monitoring” through the Strait of Hormuz, giving hope for partial resumption of shipping. Despite diplomatic efforts, China’s domestic economic data for March reflected a noticeable cooling of activity. According to a RatingDog report, the composite PMI fell to 51.5 from February’s 55.4, with a slowdown recorded in both the manufacturing sector (50.8) and services (52.1).