On Friday, US stock indices closed. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.00%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) finished the five‑day period up 2.48%. The upcoming week will be packed with critical data to help assess the true scale of the economic damage caused by the conflict. The ISM Services PMI is expected to be the first indicator to capture supply‑chain disruptions and rising costs. Particular attention will be paid to the March Consumer Price Index, where last year’s low base effect may trigger a sharp jump in the annual reading. Investors will also closely examine the FOMC meeting minutes to understand how the Fed leadership assessed the risks of an inflationary spiral two weeks after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began.

The dynamics of the Mexican peso in early April 2026 are shaped by a tight link to global capital markets and domestic growth challenges. The currency shows extreme sensitivity to risk appetite: the inverse correlation between USD/MXN and the S&P 500 has reached a low level of 0.80, the strongest since 2020. This makes the peso highly vulnerable to any negative news from the Middle East. Mexico’s domestic agenda is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting a stagnating economy. Although consumer prices (CPI) remain above the 2-4% target range, the central bank cut rates at the end of March, signaling a priority on economic growth. February industrial production data, expected later this week, may confirm the negative trend following January’s 1.1% slump. Weakness in the manufacturing sector deprives the peso of fundamental support.

Analysis of the USD/CAD pair in early April 2026 reveals an anomaly: the traditional link between the Canadian dollar and energy markets has nearly disappeared. The correlation between the loonie and oil has turned slightly positive (+0.15), paradoxically indicating CAD weakness even as oil prices rise. The main driver is the overall strength of the US dollar, with a still‑high correlation of 0.60, confirming that global flight to safety outweighs Canada’s status as a resource exporter. Fundamental pressure on the Canadian dollar is intensifying due to troubling labor‑market data. After February’s loss of 108.4 thousand full‑time jobs and a rise in unemployment to 6.7%, investors are anxiously awaiting this week’s employment report. Weak numbers could cement expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada. The probability of a rate hike on April 29 is now below 10%, and expectations for policy tightening in 2026 have shifted to the fourth quarter, leaving the currency without rate‑differential support.

European stock markets were also closed on Friday due to Easter holidays. By the end of the week, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 2.42%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed to 3.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the five‑day period up with 4.65%.
WTI crude prices corrected to 111 dollars per barrel after an early‑morning spike to 115.5 dollars. The reversal was triggered by reports of a proposed 45‑day ceasefire between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, which could form the basis for a long‑term settlement. This diplomatic opening emerged against the backdrop of an extremely harsh ultimatum from Donald Trump, who threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not unblocked immediately. Tehran officially rejected Washington’s latest demands, maintaining the effective blockade. Adding fuel to the fire, OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it had approved an increase in production quotas to combat the global shortage, but warned that physical damage to regional energy infrastructure would limit supply long after a formal ceasefire.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.65%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a 1.27% weekly gain.

The dynamics of the Australian dollar in early April 2026 are shaped by a complex interplay of global risk aversion and domestic inflationary pressures. The currency remains highly sensitive to the trajectory of the US dollar (correlation -0.75) and the stock market (correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.62), making it extremely vulnerable during periods of escalation in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the traditional link between the “aussie” and gold has weakened significantly: after peaking at 0.80 last month, the correlation has fallen to 0.45, reflecting the unusual behavior of the precious metal amid the current military crisis.

Domestically, attention is focused on February household‑spending data. The Reserve Bank of Australia responded to strong consumer demand at the end of 2025 with two rate hikes even before hostilities began on February 28. Now, despite geopolitical instability, futures markets are pricing an 80% probability of a third consecutive rate hike, viewing inflation control as the regulator’s top priority even as global growth slows. From a technical standpoint, the Australian dollar appears oversold after falling to a two‑month low near 0.6835.

In early April 2026, China is pursuing a strategy of currency stability, deliberately avoiding yuan devaluation despite the global strengthening of the US dollar. Setting the fixing at 6.8880 – the highest in recent years – indicates Beijing’s desire to minimize the cost of energy imports amid the Hormuz blockade. As the world’s largest oil importer, China faces serious challenges for its industrial sector, yet high fuel prices are paradoxically boosting domestic demand for electric vehicles and solar panels, strengthening the country’s position in the “green” sector. The macroeconomic picture remains uneven: before the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” China was battling consumer deflation, but in February the CPI jumped to a three‑year high of 1.3%. Inflation data for March, expected this week, is outlook by Bloomberg to show producer prices (PPI) returning to positive territory at 0.5%, while consumer inflation stabilizes around 1.2%. These figures will be critical for understanding how deeply disruptions in Iranian oil supplies and US-Israeli military actions have undermined price stability within China.