On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with gains. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) jumped by 0.47% (+0.38% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.69% (+1.10% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.87% (+1.42% for the week). The positive dynamics were triggered by a Supreme Court decision that ruled the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful, sparking hopes for the return of approximately $175 billion to companies. Despite weak GDP data (+1.4%) and the President’s immediate promise to introduce a new 10% global tariff via executive order, investors focused on the short-term legal triumph. In the short term, traders are forced to balance optimism from court rulings against new regulatory risks that continue to pressure long-term yield expectations.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 level against the US dollar, hitting a monthly low amid strengthening US bonds and a correction in the energy market. Despite the positive momentum from the US Supreme Court decision overturning global trade tariffs, Canada’s national currency came under pressure due to the widening yield gap with US assets. The Fed’s hawkish stance, supported by PCE inflation data at 3%, contrasts with the wait-and-see tactics of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is holding the rate at 2.25% while the Domestic Consumer Price Index slows to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated a confident rally, strengthening past the 17.15 per dollar mark, its best performance in a year and a half. The main driver of optimism was the US Supreme Court decision, which annulled the Trump administration’s global tariffs, thereby eliminating a critical risk for Mexico’s export sector. Investors remain focused on the policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), whose strategy of maintaining high interest rates continues to provide significant support to the peso amid fading trade uncertainty.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $65,000, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Pressure on the market intensified amid renewed concerns surrounding US tariff policy, which triggered volatility in global markets. Recently, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have shown weak dynamics compared to other asset classes.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87% (+1.09% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.39% (+2.31% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.94% (+2.47% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.56% (+2.30% for the week). European stock indices started the week with a decline amid intensifying trade confrontation with the US. Investors are reacting to Donald Trump’s decision to raise the announced global levy from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the 1974 law, after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous protectionist executive orders. The EU’s reaction was immediate: Brussels called on Washington to respect previously reached agreements and threatened to freeze the ratification of current trade agreements until legal clarifications are received from the American side. Despite assurances from US officials about maintaining the status quo for key partners, supply chain uncertainty is driving traders out of risky assets.

WTI oil prices ended the week with a confident gain of 5%, stabilizing around $66 per barrel. The main catalyst for the rally was a sharp increase in geopolitical risks: Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and a massive buildup of the US military presence in the Middle East sparked fears regarding the stability of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran accounts for about 3% of global production, a potential conflict threatens significant volumes of crude, forcing investors to price in a high risk premium. Traders continue to closely monitor Tehran’s 15-day deadline, expecting further volatility depending on the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

US natural gas (XNG) prices ended Friday’s trading with a sharp jump above $3.1 per MMBtu, gaining more than 4% amid expected cold weather in the Northeast. Despite this local spike, quotes showed negative dynamics for the full week, losing about 4% in value. The main pressure on the market is exerted by a significant increase in production across the Lower 48 states, which in February closely approached the historical highs of December, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day, offsetting concerns about supply shortages. Even maintaining record LNG export volumes cannot fully compensate for excessive domestic production and subdued heating demand, which limits the potential for a long-term price recovery.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.68% over the trading week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) depreciated by 3.06% during the short week, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.52% over the 5 days.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed an impressive 2.4% gain at Monday’s opening, reaching 27,056 points. Optimism swept through all sectors amid expectations for the reopening of mainland China markets after the Lunar New Year holiday. Investors interpreted Trump’s new 15% tariff as a measure that could unexpectedly play into Beijing’s hands by strengthening China’s position in global trade alliances. The Hong Kong market is currently acting as a leading indicator, pricing in a scenario where pragmatism in US-China relations outweighs tariff threats.