• RUS2000 up roughly 8% YTD, less than 1% away from records
• Small caps leaving large caps in the dust thus far in 2026
• US NFP + CPI could trigger market volatility
• Key levels at 2735, 2700 and 2650

FXTM’s RUS2000 is trading 1% from its all-time high!

AND

One of the best-performing US indices in the FXTM universe….

• US400: ↑ 8.5% YTD
• RUS2000: ↑ 8% YTD
• US30: ↑ 4.4% YTD
• US500: ↑ 1.5% YTD
• NA100: ↓ 0.5% YTD

WHY?

• Small caps have hit the new year sprinting, outpacing their large-cap counterparts thanks to compelling valuations and growth prospects.

• Unlike the US500/NAS100 which has a greater exposure to China risk, the RUS2000/US400 is heavily focused on the US economy.

• Small caps are drawing strength from the rollout of significant tax refunds, manufacturing subsidies and high sensitivity to US interest rates.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RUS2000 THIS WEEK?

·      January NFP report – Wednesday 11th February

Markets expect the US economy to have created 68,000 jobs in January with the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%.

The RUS2000 is forecasted to move ↑ 0.9% or ↓ 1.3% in a 6-hour window after the January NFP report.

·      US CPI report – Friday 13thh February

This report will be a key test of whether inflation is continuing to cool at a gradual pace.

The RUS2000 is forecasted to move ↑ 1.2% or ↓ 1.3% in a 6-hour window after the CPI report.

Traders are currently pricing at a 23% chance of a Fed cut by March with this jumping to 47% by April.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH: A solid breakout and daily close above 2700 may open a path toward the all-time high at 2735 and 2750.

BEARISH: Weakness below 2700 could trigger a selloff toward 2650 and the 50-day SMA at 2595.