On Tuesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.41%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.88%. Investors continued to build positions ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and key policy decisions. With approximately three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far exceeding expectations, the market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s decision and the accompanying signals to be announced today.

Today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting. According to the consensus among major banks, the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%. The regulator has paused to assess the impact of US trade tariffs and the economic policies of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government on exports and the broader economic balance. Markets will closely watch the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for signals regarding the resilience of Canadian economic growth and GDP amid intensifying global uncertainty, as well as hints at the future policy trajectory. A “hawkish” scenario that emphasizes inflationary risks and a strong labor market could boost the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

European equity markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.58%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed statement and US Big Tech earnings, while also digesting news regarding the EU-India trade deal. The automotive sector faced the most pressure: under the agreement, tariffs on cars were reduced from 110% to 10% for a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year. Consequently, shares of Porsche Automobil Holding, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW lost between 0.6% and 2.6%.

On Wednesday, Silver prices (XAG) rose to $115 per ounce, approaching a new all-time high amid a sharp weakening of the US Dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The movement was catalyzed by statements from US President Donald Trump, who indicated he was not concerned about the falling Dollar, which has dropped to four-year lows. These comments bolstered expectations that the administration is willing to tolerate a weak Dollar to enhance the competitiveness of US exports. Further support for precious metals came from political uncertainty in Washington, including threats of new trade tariffs and escalating attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, which are undermining investor confidence in the Greenback and US assets.

WTI Oil prices rose by approximately 2% on Tuesday, climbing toward the $62 per barrel level. Prices were supported by a severe winter storm in the US, which significantly disrupted oil production and refinery operations. Estimates suggest that US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day over the weekend, roughly 15% of national output, as extreme frost strained energy infrastructure and power grids. Geopolitics also remained in focus, as the US deployed an aircraft carrier and escort ships to the Middle East, raising tension levels and supporting the risk premium in oil prices.

The US Natural Gas prices (XNG) declined by more than 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu following an unprecedented rally of approximately 117% over the previous five trading sessions. Warmer weather forecasts and early signs of production recovery following the massive disruptions triggered the correction.

Asian markets rose confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.92%.

On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) traded near 0.699 USD, holding close to a three-year high following the release of inflation data. According to the report, annual inflation in December accelerated to 3.8% from 3.4% in November, and the monthly figure rose by 1.0%, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.7%. Closely watched core inflation also remained stubbornly high: the annual figure rose to 3.4%, well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Against this backdrop, markets swiftly repriced rate expectations, with the probability of a 25 bps hike at the February 3rd RBA meeting rising to 72%, up from 63% before the inflation data release.