GBP/USD: Friday correction after surge

August 22, 2025

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3401 after strong gains earlier in the week. The previous rally was triggered by July business activity data, which showed the best performance in a year, mainly supported by the services sector.

The release came alongside fresh UK inflation statistics, which briefly lifted sterling. However, economists noted that the price acceleration was largely driven by airfare increases rather than broad-based inflationary pressure, meaning its effect on the Bank of England policy remains limited.

Money markets are currently pricing in less than a 50% chance of a rate cut before the end of 2025. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut this year stands at only 36%, while investors do not expect the next move in interest rates before spring 2026. Since the start of 2025, the pound has already gained almost 8% against the US dollar.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

The market built a consolidation range around 1.3472 and broke it to the downside. A decline to 1.3350 is possible, followed by a correction bounce back to 1.3472. The downtrend may later extend to 1.3270. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing sharply downwards, confirming bearish momentum.

Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.

Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter

On the H1 timeframe, the market nearly completed a corrective wave at 1.3594 before starting a new downward movement. A decline to 1.3350 is expected, after which a short-term pullback to 1.3472 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view: its signal line is below 50, moving downwards towards 20, indicating further downside pressure.

Summary

After a strong rally, GBP/USD entered a corrective phase. Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook with 1.3350 and 1.3270 as key downside targets, while 1.3472 may serve as a corrective rebound level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.