04 Oct

EUR/USD hits three-week low amid ECB easing expectations

October 4, 2024

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has descended to 1.1027, marking its lowest point in three weeks. The drop reflects market anticipation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to ease monetary policy aggressively, spurred by sluggish economic growth and inflation rates falling below the ECB’s 2% target in the Eurozone.

Recent data revealed that the Eurozone’s annual Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.8% in September, the lowest since April 2021 and below the forecasted 1.9%. Moreover, core inflation dipped to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.8%, contrary to expectations of remaining steady. These weaker-than-expected inflation figures have reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting in October, which would mark the third reduction in borrowing costs this year. The market currently places a 95% probability on a 25-basis-point cut.

Robust statistics from the US services sector have further pressured the EUR/USD exchange rate, adding to the euro’s woes.

With a significant day ahead, the focus is now on the US job market reports, including the unemployment rate, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and average wages, which could further influence the pair’s movements.

EUR/USD technical analysis

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The EUR/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 1.1008, followed by a corrective rise to 1.1039. Today, the expectation is for a decline to 1.0982. After reaching this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.1066 may occur. Following this correction, another downward wave to 1.0966 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD continues to develop its third wave of decline towards 1.0982. The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1046 and achieved a local target at 1.1008 with a downward exit. A corrective move up to 1.1045 is expected today, which will likely be tested from below. Following this correction, a continued decline to 1.0982 is anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this bearish scenario, with its signal line below 50 and poised to descend towards 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.


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