22 Aug

The dovish FOMC minutes supported the growth of indices. The Australian index has been growing for 10 consecutive trading sessions

August 22, 2024

By JustMarkets

Stocks in the US ended the session higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive, 0.57% yesterday. Stocks rose on Wednesday after a significant downward revision to US payrolls data and a dovish FOMC meeting minutes from July 30-31 drove bond yields lower and reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. The minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting said that “a few” officials considered cutting interest rates at the July meeting, but the “overwhelming majority” of officials thought a rate cut in September was likely. Markets now await Fed Chairman Powell’s opening comments on Friday at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for more clues about the Fed’s future policy path.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the US employment numbers for the year to March downward by 818,000, stronger than expectations of 600,000 and the largest downward revision since 2009. The report was dovish for Fed policy, pointing to a weaker US labor market than initially reported.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.52% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.12%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.7% to $71.9 per barrel on Wednesday, settling at their lowest level since January, as investors reacted to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and a significant downward revision to estimates of US job growth. Oil declined despite a drop in US crude inventories, which fell by 4.6 million barrels in the week ended August 16, exceeding analysts’ expectations. In addition, concerns over economic weakness in China could reduce the demand for crude oil and put further pressure on oil prices.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost -0.69% over yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.16%.

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The ASX 200 Index (AU200) gained 0.21%, extending its winning streak to a tenth session, as good Australian business activity data boosted market sentiment. Australia’s composite PMI rose to 51.4 in August from 49.9 in July. This is the fastest rise in three months, driven by a pickup in service sector activity despite a deeper contraction in manufacturing output.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate for July 2024 stood at 2.0%, just below market expectations of 2.1%, and unchanged for the third consecutive month. The reading remained at its highest level since August 2023, with prices continuing to rise for food (1.6% vs. 2.0% in June), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (0.9% vs. 0.7%), and housing (3.2% vs. 3.2%). Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food prices and administrative costs, rose 1.9% y/y in June, holding steady for a fourth month and remaining at the highest level since December 2023.

Au Jibun Bank’s Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in August 2024 from a four-month low of 49.1 in the previous month, compared with the market forecast of 49.8. Preliminary estimates showed a second consecutive month of contraction in factory activity. It also marked the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector this year, driven by a further decline in new orders.

As expected, the Bank of Korea kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% for the 13th time at its August meeting. The decision came amid conflicting economic signals, with inflation falling but household debt rising and housing prices soaring after recent government measures. The council noted that short-term inflation expectations have fallen to the upper end of the 2% range. Meanwhile, this year, consumer inflation could reach the lower end of the 2% range, with an annualized rate of 2.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,620.85 +23.73 (+0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,890.49 +55.52 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 18,448.95 +91.43 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,283.43 +10.11 (+0.12%)

USD index 101.16 −0.28 (−0.28%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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