21 Jun

The yen is falling again: the devaluation scenario remains the main one

June 21, 2024

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen is weakening against the US dollar again. The USD/JPY pair is rising to 158.97.

The currency pair is now again close to the levels when the Bank of Japan and the country’s authorities conducted currency interventions. Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated that the government is prepared to take measures against speculative movements of the national currency.

Among the significant news items, attention is drawn to the information that the US has added Japan to the list of countries being monitored for currency manipulation.

Following its regular committee meeting last week, the Bank of Japan refused to agree on reducing large-scale bond purchases. It plans to present a plan to wind down such a program at a meeting in July. The market interpreted this decision in different ways, but mostly negatively.

Inflation in Japan rose from 2.5% in April to 2.8% year-on-year in May, the maximum value since February of this year. The core consumer price index accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year despite being 2.2% earlier. Meanwhile, the forecast was not met and stood at 2.6%.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has achieved a wave of growth to 158.80. Today, a consolidation range is forming around this level. With the exit from this range downwards, we will consider a correction to the level of 158.40. An upward exit will open the potential for a growth wave to 159.35, the main target. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed strictly upwards.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around 158.80. With the exit down, we will consider the development of the correction towards at least 158.40. After the completion of this correction, we expect the beginning of a new growth structure to the level of 159.35. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below level 50 and is preparing to decline to level 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.


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