By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline
COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as three of the energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts and one was unchanged.
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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,666 contracts) with Gasoline (3,379 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (2,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,007 contracts) and Heating Oil (-6,608 contracts) while the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0 contracts) saw no change on the week.
| Jul-18-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,768,189 | 33 | 206,099 | 17 | -233,490 | 84 | 27,391 | 34 |
| Gold | 482,104 | 28 | 193,348 | 62 | -213,715 | 41 | 20,367 | 31 |
| Silver | 146,863 | 36 | 43,862 | 81 | -55,983 | 26 | 12,121 | 34 |
| Copper | 216,862 | 56 | -3,550 | 28 | -1,054 | 71 | 4,604 | 48 |
| Palladium | 16,017 | 100 | -8,350 | 0 | 8,837 | 100 | -487 | 12 |
| Platinum | 65,834 | 54 | 15,736 | 52 | -19,674 | 53 | 3,938 | 21 |
| Natural Gas | 1,234,296 | 56 | -95,762 | 34 | 65,084 | 65 | 30,678 | 53 |
| Brent | 128,248 | 2 | -45,770 | 22 | 42,386 | 79 | 3,384 | 55 |
| Heating Oil | 331,790 | 49 | 21,392 | 67 | -42,785 | 38 | 21,393 | 72 |
| Soybeans | 659,917 | 19 | 107,283 | 31 | -81,463 | 69 | -25,820 | 40 |
| Corn | 1,285,176 | 13 | 19,870 | 24 | 31,268 | 81 | -51,138 | 41 |
| Coffee | 180,118 | 3 | 8,495 | 36 | -8,052 | 68 | -443 | 7 |
| Sugar | 881,020 | 44 | 196,306 | 60 | -226,229 | 41 | 29,923 | 41 |
| Wheat | 303,407 | 10 | -38,703 | 39 | 43,035 | 63 | -4,332 | 58 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) leads energy at the top of their respective ranges and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent).
On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and below 20 percent.
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (22.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (17.7 percent)
Natural Gas (33.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.4 percent)
Gasoline (47.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.9 percent)
Heating Oil (66.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (16.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Natural Gas (12.3 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (12.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.7 percent)
Gasoline (16.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.5 percent)
Heating Oil (0.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.0 percent)
Individual COT Market Charts:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 206,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,433 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.3 | 36.5 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.7 | 49.7 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | 206,099 | -233,490 | 27,391 |
| – Gross Longs: | 359,341 | 645,941 | 85,755 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 153,242 | 879,431 | 58,364 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.0 | 84.4 | 33.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.4 | -8.2 | 2.9 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,031 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.6 | 52.5 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.3 | 19.4 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | -45,770 | 42,386 | 3,384 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,053 | 67,322 | 10,271 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 56,823 | 24,936 | 6,887 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.2 | 78.7 | 55.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.6 | 1.4 | 35.3 |
Natural Gas Futures:
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,755 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.4 | 39.6 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.2 | 34.4 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | -95,762 | 65,084 | 30,678 |
| – Gross Longs: | 252,375 | 489,065 | 68,430 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 348,137 | 423,981 | 37,752 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.8 | 65.4 | 52.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.3 | -11.0 | -9.0 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,407 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.0 | 42.2 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.5 | 60.7 | 3.7 |
| – Net Position: | 56,786 | -68,017 | 11,231 |
| – Gross Longs: | 106,199 | 154,693 | 24,973 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 49,413 | 222,710 | 13,742 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.5 | 47.8 | 87.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.6 | -24.2 | 42.1 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,000 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.2 | 46.8 | 15.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.8 | 59.6 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | 21,392 | -42,785 | 21,393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 47,142 | 155,119 | 50,474 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 25,750 | 197,904 | 29,081 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.5 | 38.4 | 72.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.2 | -22.2 | 47.9 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.5 | 82.2 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.2 | 72.8 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -5,651 | 5,515 | 136 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,662 | 48,086 | 270 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,313 | 42,571 | 134 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.3 | 16.3 | 53.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.6 | 16.1 | -2.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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