Sales in the United States on Black Friday reached a record high, despite high inflation

November 28, 2022

At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.45% (+2.20% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.03% (+1.51% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.52% on Friday (-0.27% for the week).

According to Adobe Analytics, online sales in the US reached a record $9 billion on Black Friday, despite high inflation. Adobe Analytics measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions on Websites and has access to data on purchases at 85% of the top 100 online stores in the United States. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to also be the biggest online shopping day of the season. Record spending by Americans will undoubtedly be reflected in earnings in companies’ Q4 reports.

The US regulators banned Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. from selling electronics in the United States, saying they pose security risks. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) also banned suppliers such as Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Dahua Technology Co., and two-way radio manufacturer Hytera Communications Corp.

Finance Canada has modeled various fiscal projections in light of recent developments, such as persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing monetary policy changes that could affect the country’s short-term growth outlook. This scenario indicates that inflation-which is currently at 6.9%-will become more deeply entrenched, forcing central banks to raise interest rates more than initially expected. Financial officials predict that if there is a “hard landing” of the economy, inflation will remain persistently high through 2023 and remain above 3% through the first quarter of 2024, reaching the Bank of Canada’s 2% target by the end of 2024. This would push the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates to 4.5% in the first half of next year (currently at 3.75%) and push Canada into a mild recession in the first quarter of next year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.01% (+1.01% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added +0.08% (+1.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.34% (+3.89% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Friday up by 0.27% (+1.37% for the week).

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German GDP data for the third quarter was revised upward. Growth was 0.4% q/q. However, the latest surveys show that despite an increase in business activity, the economy is slowing down and might contract this quarter.

The price of Russian offshore oil should be capped at $30 to $40 a barrel, below the level proposed by the G7 countries, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy said Saturday. European Union governments, seeking to limit Moscow’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine without causing an oil supply shock, disagree on setting an upper limit. At the moment, the range of $65-70 per barrel is being considered. Restrictions are due to take effect on December 5, although there is still no decision. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister reiterated his support for the OPEC+ cuts, which are set to continue until the end of 2023, and noted that the bloc remains ready to step in when necessary to balance supply and demand. With the group’s OPEC meeting coming up next week, tensions in the oil market will be prohibitive this week.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.98% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.46%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.24%.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said Sunday that the Central Bank would conduct an annual survey of financial institutions and companies looking for ways to support the country’s growing climate finance market. The initial survey showed “high demand” in Japan for green bonds and other debt instruments related to environmental protection, social protection, and governance (ESG).

China’s overall industrial profits declined between January and October as the COVID-19 outbreak restrained economic activity. Profits fell in 22 of China’s 41 major industries.

Protests have broken out in China. Chinese protesters clashed with police in several major cities over the weekend amid growing public discontent with the government’s strict measures to combat COVID. A deadly fire in Urumqi linked to quarantine measures sparked a wave of protests across the country. The unrest now has the potential to stall further China’s economic growth, which is already suffering from the country’s strict measures against COVID this year. China is also struggling with a record-high daily increase in COVID-19 cases.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+14.55%), coffee (+6.06%), orange juice (+4.57%), and silver (+2.3%) showed the biggest gains over the week. Futures on palladium (-4.65%), WTI oil (-4.44%), cotton (-4.31%), Brent oil (-4.23%), sugar (-3.84%), and wheat (-3.56%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,026.12 −1.14 (−0.028%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,347.03 +152.97 (+0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 14,541.38 +1.82 (+0.013%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,486.67 +20.07 (+0.27%)

USD Index 106.06 -0.01 (-0.01%)

Important events for today:

– Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Sales in the United States on Black Friday reached a record high, despite high inflation