by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1414
- Prev Close: 1.1425
- % chg. over the last day: +0.09%
ECB representatives indicated that they do not trust inflation forecasts and rely more on actual data. Meanwhile, EU DRAFT forecasts inflation in the Eurozone at 3.5% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023. The GDP growth forecast is 4% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.
- Support levels: 1.1414, 1.1362, 1.1329, 1.1275
- Resistance levels: 1.1481, 1.1534, 1.1617
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame is bullish. The EUR/USD currency pair is trading in the wide corridor of 1.1414-1.1481. The MACD indicator is inactive for the second day. The market froze in anticipation of US inflation data. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.1414, with the targets to the upper border of the corridor. Sell trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the upper boundary of the corridor, but only with short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1275 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.
- – Eurozone Economic Forecasts (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3531
- Prev Close: 1.3534
- % chg. over the last day: +0.02%
A mixed medium-term background is forming on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound now has fundamental support from the Bank of England because when interest rates rise, the national rate strengthens in the medium term. However, it should not be forgotten that the Fed is also preparing to raise interest rates since March and may do so more aggressively if US inflation data today turns out to be worse than expected. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech today. Traders should be on the lookout for clues regarding monetary policy.
- Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3434
- Resistance levels: 1.3583, 1.3619, 1.3639, 1.3662
On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bullish. The volatility on the currency pair has now decreased, while the MACD indicator has become inactive. The market is waiting for the US consumer price data. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3475. The resistance level of 1.3583 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 11:05 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 115.53
- Prev Close: 115.53
- % chg. over the last day: 0.00%
The USD/JPY quotes are showing a medium-term uptrend as the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the JPY cheaper due to the maximum stimulus, while the Fed is tightening the monetary policy and might do it more aggressively if today’s inflation data turns out to be worse than the forecast of 7.3%. Japan’s producer inflation rate fell to 8.6% from 8.7%. Analysts had expected a decline to 8.2%.
- Support levels: 115.15, 114.96, 114.76
- Resistance levels: 115.73, 116.08
The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen slowly keeps getting cheaper amid the rising dollar index and due to the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. The MACD indicator indicates a divergence. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.15. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.73, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.76, the uptrend will likely be broken.
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2702
- Prev Close: 1.2672
- % chg. over the last day: -0.23%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Crude oil inventories in the US showed a decline of 4.8 million barrels last week. The inventory decline indicates a supply shortage, which positively affects the growth of oil prices. The increase in oil prices contributes to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar (decrease in USD/CAD quotes).
- Support levels: 1.2649, 1.2600, 1.2506
- Resistance levels: 1.2729, 1.2792
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading in a wide flat, making it difficult to find good entry points. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support levels of 1.2649. There are no optimal entry points to sell deals now, as the price is trading near the lower border of the corridor.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2649 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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