Weekly Market Outlook: ECB, BOC & Earnings in Focus

This week, traders will be focused on a wide range of important central bank statements and press conferences as well as corporate earnings from some major companies.

The Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are all on the calendar this week. The Canadian dollar has been the strongest currency over the past four weeks and is likely to react strongly to the latest from the Bank of Canada.

While the euro has been mostly lower in the past few weeks, it is likely the European Central Bank will inject some volatility into European stock market indices which have been stagnant. However, all eyes will start to turn to European corporate earnings starting next week as US earnings wind down this week.

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Weekly Forex Calendar

Source: Forex Calendar from the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals.  

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Trader’s Radar – ECB Press Conference

On Thursday 28 October, the European Central Bank releases its latest monetary policy statement which will be accompanied by a press conference at 1.30 pm BST. The European economy is not in a good place right now.

Disruptions to supply, rocketing energy prices, a rising number of coronavirus cases in Eastern Europe, a slowdown in China are all causes for concern for the bank – especially as China is Europe’s biggest trading partner.

With this in mind, it’s likely ECB president Christine Lagarde will strike a gloomier tone which could cause some further weakness in the euro and a possible boost for European stock indices.

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, EURUSD, Monthly – Data range: from 1 Jul 2013 to 24 Oct 2021, performed on 24 Oct 2021 at 7:00 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.  

The price of EURUSD is currently sitting at a very interesting level of horizontal support around 1.1515. There have been significant turning points around this price level in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2020.

A move below this price level could see EURUSD go on to test the lows of the pandemic period. Much will depend on the tone the central bank strikes this week but it’s a key level to watch.

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Corporate Trading Updates and Stock Indices

Global stock market indices made small gains last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 index recording new all-time highs. However, the Nasdaq 100 and European indices are still trading below record highs. Investors will be looking for them to catch up.

Keep an eye on the following companies reporting this week:

• Tuesday – Pfizer, AMD, McDonald’s, Microsoft
• Wednesday – Boeing, Ford, PayPal, Alphabet
• Thursday – Lloyds Banking, Volkswagen, Coca-Cola

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, SP500, Daily – Data range: from 22 Jan 2021 to 24 Oct 2021, performed on 24 Oct 2021 at 6:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.  

Past five-year performance of the S&P 500: 2020 = +16.17%, 2019 = +29.09%, 2018 = -5.96%, 2017 = +19.08%, 2016 = +8.80 

The daily price chart of the S&P 500 stock market index shown above still highlights a clear uptrend. While the price decline during the typically weak summer months, the price has come roaring back higher to record a new all-time high last week.

However, the price has broken away from the previous record strongly. There is a chance that price could struggle here as earnings season winds down next week. If the Nasdaq can continue its run to its record high then there could be some momentum left in the S&P 500 index as well.

It’s definitely one to watch!

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