Archive for CountingPips Forex Blog – Page 54

Copper Speculator bullish positions rebounded this week

November 10, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 6,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 6th. This was a weekly boost of 5,719 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 667 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position advancing by 1,827 contracts to a weekly total of 73,447 contracts and a fall in the gross bearish position to a total of 67,061 contracts which was a reduction by -3,892 contracts for the week.

The net speculative position rebounded this week after last week’s decline by -8,680 contracts. Overall, the copper spec position has gained for three out of the past four weeks and has now been in positive bullish territory for seven straight weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -6,777 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -4,456 contracts from the total net of -2,321 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $273.25 which was a boost of $6.85 from the previous close of $266.40, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Forex Speculators again raised US Dollar Index bullish bets. Mexican Peso bets slide

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comGet our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index speculator positions continued higher this week

Large currency speculators continued to boost their bullish bets in favor of US Dollar Index futures once again this week while cutting back on their bullish Mexican peso positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 39,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly advance of 1,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,028 net contracts.

The speculative Dollar Index position has now risen for five straight weeks and is on an amazing run with gains in twenty-six out of the last twenty-eight weeks. The current standing remains at the highest level since May 2nd of 2017 when the net position totaled 40,020 contracts.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

The Mexican peso contract fell sharply by over -20,000 contracts this week and has fallen lower for three straight weeks. Despite these recent shortfalls, the peso has fared better than many of the other major currencies as the MXN has remained in an overall bullish position for eighteen weeks in a row. The current standing is above the +30,000 contract level for a seventh straight week.

Overall, the major currencies that improved this week were the US Dollar Index (1,495 weekly change in contracts), the Japanese yen (1,184 contracts) and the Swiss franc (2,583 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-2,358 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-5,485 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,427 contracts), Australian dollar (-44 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,983 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-24,218 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro positions continued to get battered and bruised this week and fell for the fifth straight week. The current standing remains at the most bearish level since March 14th of 2017 when net positions totaled -41,027 contracts.

New Zealand dollar positions declined againt this week (-1,983 weekly change in contracts) and are right near the record high bearish level of two weeks ago (-35,412 contracts). The NZD remains above the -30,000 contract level for a seventh week in a row.

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx14,6052,760-32,662-2,358
GBP72,1705,641-52,482-5,485
JPY107,462-5,688-91,6201,184
CHF34,852-756-14,5222,583
CAD8,472314-9,655-2,427
AUD93,4023,470-70,412-44
NZD39,0981,826-35,031-1,983
MXN-35,41826,35133,809-24,218

 

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

 

WTI Crude Oil Speculators decreased their bullish bets for 5th straight week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators continued to decrease their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 432,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly fall of -22,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 455,278 net contracts.

This week’s decline in bullish bets marks the fifth straight weekly reduction and the seventh shortfall out of the past eight weeks. Bullish bets have fallen by -127,447 contracts since the beginning of October. The current standing has now slid to the lowest bullish standing since October 17th of 2107 (a span of 55 weeks) when the net position totaled 429,525 contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -467,071 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 35,744 contracts from the total net of -502,815 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $66.18 which was a drop of $-0.25 from the previous close of $66.43, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators continued to cut back on their bearish bets this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -502,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly lift of 41,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -544,033 net contracts.

The speculative bearish position has now declined for five straight weeks and by a total of 253,477 contracts over that period after recording an all-time high level of bearish bets (-756,316 contracts) on September 25th. The current standing is now at the lowest bearish level since July 17th when the net position totaled -469,138 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 584,835 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -50,194 contracts from the total net of 635,029 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $118.54 which was a boost of $0.54 from the previous close of $118.00, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators slightly added to their bearish bets this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators edged their bearish net positions very slightly higher in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly lowering of -19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,058 net contracts.

The speculative Bitcoin position had seen decreasing levels of bearishness in the previous two weeks before this week’s edge higher. Over the past few months, the speculator sentiment for Bitcoin futures has steadily trended toward lower bearish levels from approximately -1,500 contracts to close to the -1,000 contract levels of the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, the small traders position, which is on the opposite side of this market from the speculators, edged their existing bullish positions slightly higher this week by an equally offsetting 19 contracts to a current bullish level of 1,077 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data is Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its forty-sixth week since the start of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th 2017. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without any commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators started off and have remained on the bearish side since the beginning of the bitcoin data releases while the small traders have continued to be on the bullish side of this cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $6245 which was a decline of $-150 from the previous close of $6395, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators bullish bets cooled off this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 13,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly lowering of -16,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,388 net contracts.

The speculative gold position had risen sharply over the previous two weeks and by a total of 67,563 contracts after spending the previous nine weeks in bearish territory. Despite this week’s pullback, the current standing marks a third consecutive week in bullish territory.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -31,205 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 15,315 contracts from the total net of -46,520 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1225.30 which was a drop of $-11.50 from the previous close of $1236.80, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators sharply advanced their bullish bets again this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 263,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly increase of 23,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,372 net contracts.

The speculative bullish bets rose for a second straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. The current standing is now at the highest level since February 6th of this year when the net position totaled 286,214 contracts.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -301,427 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -28,719 contracts from the total net of -272,708 contracts reported the previous week.

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the S&P500 Mini Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $2685.25 which was a loss of $-61.0 from the previous close of $2746.25, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators raised their bets into a new bullish position this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators boosted their bets in the VIX futures markets this week to a new bullish level, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 1,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly boost of 12,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,303 net contracts.

The speculative position for VIX futures has now seen improvement (declining bearish bets) for four straight weeks and landed this week at a new bullish level. This is the first bullish net position since May 8th (a span of 26 weeks) when the net position totaled 17,589 contracts.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 1,468 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -11,968 contracts from the total net of 13,436 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $20.92 which was a boost of $2.10 from the previous close of $18.82, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators upped their bearish bets this week

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bearish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -8,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly decrease of -3,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,179 net contracts.

The speculative bearish position in silver had seen a decline in the previous two weeks and in six out of the previous seven weeks before this week’s turnaround. The current standing for the silver spec position remains below the -10,000 net contract level for a second week but has now remained in an overall bearish position for twelve consecutive weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -9,760 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 3,502 contracts from the total net of -13,262 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1446.20 which was a loss of $-33.10 from the previous close of $1479.30, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators dropped their bullish bets this week after 2 weeks of gains

November 3, 2018 – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 30th. This was a weekly reduction of -8,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,347 net contracts.

The speculative copper position had been on the increase for the previous two weeks and for five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s retreat. The current standing is now at a tiny bullish level (+667 contracts) and marks the lowest position in six weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -2,321 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 7,689 contracts from the total net of -10,010 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $266.40 which was a decrease of $-9.40 from the previous close of $275.80, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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