InvestMacro

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2104
• Prev Close: 1.2162
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

At the end of Thursday, EUR/USD demonstrated the presence of bullish strength, but the pair is still holding the position of a chasing one among the G10 currencies. Growth in German Bonds yields indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement, but a full renewal of the northern trend is still in question.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying. Northbound movement may be described as a slow one, but technical characteristics are indicative of a likely continuation. The ADX has reached a high point, which indicates the need for a pullback. The MACD is fixed in the positive zone, but no convergence has occurred, which proves the slow growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix below the level of 1.2077, the pair may move to a decline to 1.1799.

News feed for 2021.01.22:

• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3650
• Prev Close: 1.3729
• % chg. over the last day: +0.58%

On Thursday, the sterling continued to dominate and renewed its own records of the year. The bulls were encouraged by positive expectations of UK government support for workspaces. But in the Asian session, there is a rapid decline, which calls further growth into question.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3716, 1.3744

The main scenario in GBP/USD is being traded in a sideways range between 1.3716 and 1.3622. The potential for a southward movement on the ADX is indicated as an increasing one. The fast move sent the MACD to zero and the SMA50 was broken-through, which brings the continuation of the upward movement into question. The pair is likely to stop between the first support and resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3622, the pair is likely to return to 1.3517. A break-through at 1.3716 will indicate a renewed growth.

News feed for 2021.01.22:

• – UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (Jan) at 12:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.52
• Prev Close: 103.48
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03%

The USD/JPY was pretty close to the support level but it bounced back, almost forming a daily candle called “Doji”. This usually holds out the prospect of a reversal, but seeing how the pair reacts to the situation of the stock market, the growth remains highly questionable. It’s not yet possible to single out any stable direction in the pair, both on the lower and higher time frames.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.32, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 104.09, 104.40

The main scenario is trading in a range between 104.09 and 103.32. The ADX began to react to both directions, and the frequent change of priorities indicates the development of lateral dynamics. The MACD is near zero, and the price is between the moving averages. All signals are neutral.

The alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.09. In this case, the pair may return to 104.40 or higher. A break-through of 103.32 will indicate a continued decline.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2632
• Prev Close: 1.2633
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

On Thursday, oil prices retreated from their highs slightly and continued their decline in the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, the dollar index is correcting, which together caused a northern pullback in the currency pair. But it’s difficult to talk about reversal yet.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2590, 1.2450
• Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is purchases. The pair is prone to a rollback and, possibly, the deep one so far. The ADX showed a high potential for an upward movement intraday. The MACD has turned over sharply and is in the positive zone. But for now, the price is fixed below SMA 100. For a more accurate buy signal, it’s advisable to wait for a pullback to SMA 50 and see a rebound or for a break-through and price fixation above SMA 100.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2590, the pair may resume its southward direction.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

Preliminary data in the PMI report from IHS Markit showed a slowdown in the German manufacturing sector to 57 in January, the lowest in 4 months. The numbers turned out to be slightly lower than the forecasts of 57.5 but they still indicate a steady increase. The industrial production index remained in the positive zone, although it fell to a five-month low, as the volume of orders decreased. Meanwhile, the number of export orders has increased. The decline in employment was the lowest since June 2019 and price pressures have increased. The assessments of the future economic situation were marked as positive ones.

The service sector continues to suffer the most. This index in Germany fell to 46.8. And while the data is slightly higher than the forecasted one, they can’t be called optimistic. This is the 4^th consecutive month of falling amid tightening coronavirus controls. Inflation remained unchanged, but employment rose. Business expectations have also improved.

In France, the service sector declined the most, to 46.5. Slight acceleration of growth in the manufacturing sector couldn’t save the situation. The composite index continued to fall for the fifth month in a row. Also, just as in Germany, there is an increase in workplaces, which is associated with the optimistic sentiment of companies for the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to weigh on economic expectations in the UK. Earlier this week, the government envisioned easing measures in mid-March. It looks like the outlook turned out to be bleaker. When Boris Johnson was asked about the likelihood of extending the quarantine until the summer, he didn’t exclude this.

The stock market has ignored the data on the expansion of quarantine in Europe so far. The indices dropped only slightly during the Asian session, which doesn’t look like something serious. The dollar index has stabilized near 90.00.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,823.88 -22.12 (-0.58%)

Dow Jones 31,176.01 -12.37 (-0.04%)

DAX 13,795.00 -111.67 (-0.80%)

FTSE 100 6,684.25 -31.17 (-0.46%)

USD Index 90.175 +0.048 (+0.05%)

• – New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (4 qtr.) at 00:45 (GMT+2);
• – Australia Retail Sales (MoM) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Retail Sales (MoM) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (Jan) at 12:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.2134; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2140 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1965. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2230. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2315. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 1.2040.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1873.00; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1845.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1945.00. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1815.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1780.00. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the cloud’s upside border and fix above 1895.00.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7770; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7740 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7830. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.7665. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7575.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. Right now, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, close to the support level, EURUSD may reverse in the form of another rising impulse. The upside target may be at 1.2180. After that, the pair may rebound from the resistance level and resume trading downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may start a new decline to reach 1.2020 without testing 1.2180.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after rebounding from the channel’s upside border and forming a Shooting Star pattern, the pair is still reversing. The downside target may be the support area at 102.85. After completing another correction, USDJPY may resume trading downwards. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue its growth to return to 104.00 before resuming its decline.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level, EURGBP may reverse and start another pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be at 0.8925. However, judging by previous movements, the pair may yet continue its decline to reach 0.8785 without reversing and correcting.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2126
• Prev Close: 1.2105
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

EUR/USD was the weakest pair at the end of Wednesday. The day closed in the red despite the negative dynamics of the dollar index. This indicates significant pressure from the bears and the need to be careful with the euro bulls. Perhaps this is due to the upcoming ECB meeting, which will be held today at the end of the European session.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1799
• Resistance levels: 1.2158, 1.2222

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying. Despite the apparent weakness of the euro compared to other currencies, the technical characteristics still show the likelihood of growth. The ADX still only reacts to the northern movement, demonstrating high growth potential. The MACD is holding above zero, and the price is fixed above the moving averages.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix below the level of 1.2059, the pair may move to a decline to 1.1799.

News feed for 2021.01.21:

• – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – ECB press conference at 16:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3628
• Prev Close: 1.3651
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The sterling is showing strong bullish potential on par with commodity currencies. Discussion of the plan to rescue the economy had a positive impact on the foreign exchange market. The Chancellor of the Treasury Rishi Sunak is expected to provide an assistance program that will keep workplaces for those on vacation during the quarantine period and pay salaries up to 80%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3716, 1.4386

The main scenario in GBP/USD is buying. Sterling renewed its highs and when the price fixes above 1.3716, the pair’s immediate resistance will lie at the spring 2018 levels at 1.4386. The technical specifications are showing strong bullish potential. The ADX shows that the pound is able to go about 80 more points before the first rollback.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3622, the pair is likely to return to 1.3517.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.89
• Prev Close: 103.46
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42%

It seems as if the yen has completely lost contact with the stock markets. The negative value of the close of the day turned out to be even greater than the dollar index showed. At the same time, the stock market was able to renew highs. A price fixation below the weekly range levels indicates a presence of bears in this pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.18, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 104.20, 104.40

The main scenario is sales. Specifications indicate continued southbound traffic. But the ADX is giving a weak signal. This suggests that if there is a decline – it will be very slow. Convergence has formed on the MACD, and there are no hints of stopping the fall yet.

The alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 103.77. In this case, the pair may be able to return to 104.20.

News feed for 2021.01.21:

• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 16:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2731
• Prev Close: 1.2631
• % chg. over the last day: -0.80%

The stabilization of oil prices near the highs and the absence of hints from the Bank of Canada to increase economic stimulus are factors that significantly supported the Canadian dollar. The pair managed to break through an important support level and now threatens to go far down. If the dollar continues to lose ground, there will be almost nothing to prevent the Canadian dollar from strengthening against the USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2523, 1.2450
• Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is sales. All technical specifications indicate continued southward movement. A triple convergence has formed on the MACD. The ADX can’t reach the short-term overvalued area, and the bearish potential remains high. The pair can go about 50 more points before the first rollback.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix above 1.2713, the pair may return to 1.2797.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

by JustForex

On Tuesday, the ZEW Institute released data on economic expectations, which showed the growth after a strong decline since October last year for the second consecutive month. The index for Germany was the strongest. Expectations rose by 6.8 points to 61.8, slightly above market expectations of 60.0. The outlook for the German economy has improved amid rising export expectations and despite the uncertainty caused by tightening social restrictions due to the pandemic. About 71% of surveyed economists expect an improvement in economic activity in the coming months, 9% expect a continuation of the decline in the future, and 20% left their estimates unchanged. The current economic situation remains in the negative zone at -66.4.

Janet Yellen impressed the investors, although everything she said was in line with expectations. The lack of desire to race to reduce the value of the dollar and the need for a huge infusion of stimulus funds into the economy are priorities that the stock market “liked”. The S&P 500 returned to its January highs immediately. However, bullish fervor may be subdued. First, the market didn’t hear anything new, and the Republicans will hinder new bills. Secondly, there is no positive sentiment in the credit market. The Treasury yield remained below 1.10%.

Another factor that may deter investors is the lack of a visible desire to extinguish the trade war with China. According to Janet Yellen, China is undermining the position of American companies by erecting trade barriers and providing illegal subsidies to corporations. It also “steals intellectual property and uses methods that provide an unfair technological advantage”. The Celestial Empire was called “an important strategic competitor,” and all available tools will be used to counter it.

So, not much will change for investors considering the impact of Asian business. Apparently, in this part, the political course remains the same, and in the context of an ongoing pandemic for investors, it means additional uncertainty.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,802.12 +11.62 (+0.31%)

Dow Jones 30,930.52 +116.26 (+0.38%)

DAX 3,899.80 +84.74 (+0.61%)

FTSE 100 6,720.87 +7.92 (+0.12%)

USD Index 90.412 -0.064 (-0.07%)

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

The dollar index slid 0.25% lower yesterday as the 45^th President exited the White House.

Investors now look ahead to financial spending worth trillions of dollars. Joe Biden already unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package that he hopes will get congressional approval.

Biden’s policies have received support from the new treasury secretary Janet Yellen. In a written statement yesterday, Yellen said that the country needed to act big to prevent a deep recession.

We now look ahead to the next four years of this new regime.

Euro Rises on Strong Economic Data

The euro closed 0.45% higher on Tuesday as it once again punched through the 1.21 ceiling.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment improved in January, marking a 4-month high. The report found that there is optimism over economic conditions, with expectations that inflation and exports will move higher for Europe’s biggest economy.

We now look ahead to today’s CPI data for another move back to recent highs for the currency pair.

Pandemic Not Going Anywhere

Sterling closed 0.28% higher yesterday, rising through the 1.36 handle.

This comes despite the UK recording its worst-ever daily Covid-19 fatality rate. It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now above 90,000.

The focus now shifts to today’s PPI numbers, as well as the UK’s inflation data, which could provide a clearer near-term direction.

Strong Bank Earnings Propels Indexes

Big banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup all released impressive results as the earnings season commences.

That has continued to supercharge the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 as they closed higher 0.32% and 0.65% respectively.

Netflix also released their Q4 earnings, blowing away estimates as they added 8.5 million users.

Gold Flatlined Ahead of Biden’s Entry

The yellow metal was fairly mixed on Tuesday, as investors digested an expected testimony from US Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen.

Traders now look ahead to US President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration to the Presidency, which will be eyed for more information as to his plans and agenda.

Markets will also be on the lookout for any further political violence, as security is stepped up around the country to guard against Trump supporters.

Oil Teases the $53 Handle

WTI moved almost 2% higher on Tuesday, as it flirted at the $53 level.

This comes despite the monthly IEA report being downbeat. The agency downgraded its forecast for Q1 oil demand growth by 600K bpd, a reflection of resurgent Covid-19 cases and associated lockdowns in major economies.

However, this failed to deliver any meaningful dent to the bullish oil market sentiment, as the black gold searches for fresh highs once again.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing a slight correction, GBPUSD is forming another rising impulse to reach the high at 1.3740. If this level is broken, the price may continue growing to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.3790 and 1.3980 respectively. However, an alternative scenario says that the pair may rebound from the high and start a new mid-term descending wave towards 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.3465, 1.3315, 1.3193, 1.3071, and 1.2924 respectively.

In the H1 chart, the descending correctional wave was approaching 38.2% fibo at 1.3510 but has failed to reach it. In the nearest future, the price may break the high at 1.3710 and then continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.3782 and 1.3828 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, EURJPY is completing its decline after another divergence on MACD and may start a new rising wave soon. Possibly, the pair may resume growing to break the mid-term 61.8% fibo at 128.65 and then continue moving to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 129.16 and 130.43 respectively. The key support is the fractal low at 121.62.

As we can see In the H1 chart, after correcting towards 50.0% fibo, the pair is moving upwards but may soon start another descending impulse to reach 61.8% fibo at 124.62. The local upside target is the high at 127.49, a breakout of which will hint at a further uptrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.