Archive for Cryptocurrencies

12 Nov

Bitcoin hits an all-time high above $88,000. Oil remains under pressure

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 0.05%. Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials setting new all-time highs. The broad market continued last week’s post-election gains on speculation that President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits by cutting taxes and reducing regulation. Additionally, Tesla’s stock is up more than 8%, which is complementing last week’s 26% gain on speculation that the company will benefit from a Trump presidency. Additionally, digital-assets-related stocks soared on speculation that digital assets will benefit from the Trump administration’s pro-digital-assets policies.

Bitcoin remained above the $88,000 mark on Tuesday, holding steady after rising more than 10% to new all-time highs in the previous session. The rally was driven by expectations of a digital-assets-friendly US government under Donald Trump and a Republican-led Congress. Trump, an ardent supporter of digital assets, has promised to make the US the “planet’s capital of digital assets” and create national Bitcoin reserves, further bolstering investor optimism. Meanwhile, Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers noted on Air X that the post-halving supply shock could be the main catalyst for this rally.

Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari said a strong US economy and rising productivity could force policymakers to cut interest rates less than expected in the coming months. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 18%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) fell to 20.5 per US dollar in November, the lowest since July 2022, as the threat of protectionist policies from Mexico’s main trading partner, the US, weighed on the outlook for Mexican exports and foreign exchange inflows. Speculation that former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, known for his protectionist stance, could be reappointed by President-elect Donald Trump has heightened fears of tighter trade policies toward Mexico.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.21%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.20% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.65%. Investors are closely watching the possible effects of Donald Trump’s policies on Europe and political developments in Germany, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s willingness to postpone a vote of confidence, which could lead to early elections before Christmas.

ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said yesterday, “Now that inflation is coming down, we’ve started to lower interest rates, which looks like we’re going to continue lower and could end up close to 2% around next September.”

WTI crude oil prices fell below $68 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses after a two-day slump, as a bearish demand outlook continues to weigh on the market. China’s recent stimulus efforts have proven insufficient to intervene directly and weak inflation persists, adding to demand concerns from the world’s largest oil importer. In addition, the rise in the US dollar, driven by the re-election of President Trump, has put further pressure on oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.45% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.35%.

The offshore yuan slid to 7.24 per dollar, hitting a three-month low, pressured by a strong US dollar as Trump’s “Trump deals” continued to boost financial markets. The yuan’s decline was exacerbated by weak Chinese economic data and an insufficient stimulus package. On Monday, Chinese banks issued only 500 billion yuan in new loans for October, down sharply from September’s figures and well below market expectations. The Australian dollar is often seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, and its fall reflects lingering concerns about China’s economic outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,001.35 +5.81 (+0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,293.13 +304.14 (+0.69%)

DAX (DE40) 19,448.60 +233.12 (+1.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,125.19 +52.80 (+0.65%)

USD Index 105.50 +0.50 (+0.48%)

News feed for: 2024.11.12

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
11 Nov

Bitcoin hits new record high just shy of $82,000!

By ForexTime

  • Bitcoin has surged over 17% since Nov. 5th US elections day
  • The world’s oldest crypto up 90.8% so far in 2024
  • Bitcoin outperformed other “Trump trade” assets since Nov. 5th
  • Cardano (+72%) is FXTM’s best-performing crypto since Nov. 5th
  • Bitcoin may see technical pullback soon

 

Bitcoin has skyrocketed since the US presidential elections last week.

At the time of writing today (Monday, November 11th), the world’s oldest cryptocurrency came to within a whisker of the big, round number of $82,000.

Bitcoin hits new record high close to $82,000

 

Here’s how Bitcoin has fared of late:

  • +17.3% since November 5th polling day
  • +90.8% so far in 2024 (year to date)

 

Why is Bitcoin hitting new record highs?

President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his desire to make the US the “crypto capital of the world”.

Whatever the “crypto capital” entails, perhaps industry-friendly regulations or even the touted strategic Bitcoin stockpile, markets hope that the incoming Trump administration will foster further innovation in the industry that boosts greater adoption of the asset.

What’s clearer is that crypto investors and traders are not willing to sit around to find out the finer details. They’re already flooding back in to send prices soaring.

This latest wave of crypto fever is evidenced by:

  • $1.12 billion of net inflows on Thursday, November 7th, into the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust – the largest 1-day net inflow in its history.
  • This ETF’s trading volume also rose to an all-time peak on November 7th.

 

Bitcoin outperforms other “Trump trades”, but lags other cryptos

And Bitcoin’s 17% ascent since Nov. 5th is certainly superior to other “Trump trade” assets for the same period:

  • USDInd (US dollar index): +1.7%
  • RUS2000 (Russell 2000 index): +6.1%
  • JPMorgan shares: +7%
  • Goldman Sachs: +11.8%

However, smaller cryptos have outperformed the more illustrious Bitcoin’s 17% since polling day

Here’s a list of cryptos within the FXTM universe that have posted larger gains compared to Bitcoin since November 5th:

  • Solana: +24.9%
  • Bitcoin Cash: +26%
  • Chainlink: +28.4%
  • Ethereum: +30.1%
  • Avalanch: 31.1%
  • Polygon: +34.6%
  • Dogecoin: +68.4%
  • Cardano: +72.2%

Within the FXTM universe, only Litecoin (15%) and Ripple (+12.8%) has lagged behind Bitcoin’s 17% gain since November 5th.

 

Bitcoin: ripe for technical pullback?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index is now far higher than the 70 threshold – the textbook level which denotes “overbought” conditions.

At 76.5 at the time of writing, this is the highest reading for the 14-day RSI since mid-March.

The last Bitcoin’s RSI was at this level, it preceded a 23.4% drop for Bitcoin.

The selloff commenced from the March 14th intraday high of $73850 – then a new record high – through to the May 1st  intraday low of $56,457.70 when the RSI moved close to the 30 mark which denotes “oversold” conditions.

Even so, Bitcoin’s downtrend – a series of lower highs and lower low – persisted for nearly 6 months, from mid-March through to early-September.

Of course, the macro environment is far different this time around compared to that March-September downtrend.

Although back then, there was the euphoria surrounding the first-ever Bitcoin ETF and its mid-April halving, crypto bulls did not enjoy the massive boost stemming from “Trump trades”.

Even if Bitcoin were to see a healthy technical pullback over the near-term, once the froth from its recent surge has been cleared, Bitcoin prices may yet recover to seek fresh record highs, provided there’s still more momentum to the ongoing Trump-phoria.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
29 Oct

Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark. The Canadian dollar fell to last year’s lows

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.65% on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.27%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed at its opening price. Stocks rose amid lower geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Israel launched only a limited retaliatory strike on some Iranian military installations over the weekend and did not bomb oil infrastructure. Corporate earnings season for the third quarter remains in full swing. Those giants will be reporting this week. Of the companies in the S&P 500 that have already posted earnings, 76% beat estimates. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies, on average, are expected to report quarterly earnings growth of 4.3% y/y in Q3, below the consensus of 7.9% y/y growth seen in July.

Boeing (BA) is down 2.71% after it began selling $19 billion worth of shares to reduce debt and try to stave off a downgrade to undesirable. Coinbase (COIN) is up 5.48% thanks to support from Bitcoin’s 4.1% rally on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke the key $70,000 mark this week for the first time since June, driven by strong inflows into US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds. According to industry data, US Bitcoin funds have recorded inflows of more than $3 billion in the past two weeks, bringing year-to-date inflows to more than $25 billion. Betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election on November 5 has also contributed to the rise of crypto assets, as he has consistently voiced support for the crypto industry during his campaign.

In October, the Canadian dollar fell to 1.39 per US dollar, the weakest since October 2022, amid pressure from lower oil prices and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish stance. At its last meeting, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 50 bps and signaled that more rate cuts are likely to follow, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve’s less accommodative outlook. This was driven by slowing inflation and a softening labor market, with inflation falling to 1.6% in September, below the 2% target for the first time in three years, and unemployment hitting a two-year high of 6.6%

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) slipped below 20 per dollar in October, hitting a seven-week low, as mid-month inflation data coincided with signals from recent Bank of Mexico meeting minutes hinting at a potentially looser monetary stance. Core inflation fell to 3.87% from 3.95% in the first two weeks of October, fueling speculation of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November, which could put pressure on the peso by curbing capital inflows.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily rising on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.79% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.77%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.45%.

As for oil, after the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the market’s attention shifted back to weak fundamentals, particularly sluggish demand growth in China and the expected increase in OPEC production. These factors have a negative impact on oil quotations.

Asian markets were predominantly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.12%.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.15 per dollar, hitting a more than two-month low. It remains under pressure from a strengthening US dollar, supported by signs of resilience in the US economy and growing expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. In addition, traders remained cautious as they awaited further details on anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from China’s top leaders at their upcoming meeting from November 4 to 8.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar held near the three-month low reached in the previous session. Domestically, the kiwi remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to continue aggressively cutting interest rates now that inflation has returned to the target range. Investors are currently estimating a 0.5% rate cut at the Central Bank’s last meeting of the year in November, with some expecting a 75 basis point cut.

In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority in elections over the weekend, raising policy uncertainty and further complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans for a rate hike. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August, the lowest in eight months. Investors now await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,823.52 +15.40 (0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,387.57 +273.17 (0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 19,531.62 +68.03 (0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,285.62 +36.78 (0.45%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.10.29

  • German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
09 Oct

Bitcoin: Wedged between 50 and 200-day SMA

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin ↓ 2.6% in October
  • HBO doc identifies Peter Todd as Bitcoin creator
  • Over past year Fed minutes triggered moves of ↑ 2.2% & ↓ 1%
  • Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 1.8% & ↓ 2.9%
  • Technical levels: $63,500 & $61,000

Bitcoin has found itself trapped within a range on the daily charts.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency could be waiting for a fresh fundamental spark to trigger significant price swings.

Bitcoin

Despite the growing anticipation, Bitcoin offered a muted response after HBO’s documentary pointed to Canadian Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Todd immediately denied these claims on social media.

This was initially a big deal due to the mystery surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto who is estimated to hold 1.1 million Bitcoins worth $66 billion. If Satoshi’s identity was truly unmasked, it could have various implications for Bitcoin which has skyrocketed over the years and gained mainstream acceptance.

With our attention back to key data, here are 3 things to keep an eye on this week:

 

    1) Fed speeches + FOMC meeting minutes

Last Friday’s strong jobs report boosted confidence in the US economy and erased hopes around a 50bp Fed cut in November.

It will be interesting to see what Fed officials think about the latest developments and the potential impacts it could have on future rate cuts. Regarding the FOMC minutes, investors will be looking for fresh insight into the outlook for labour markets or future policy moves.

Given how cryptocurrencies have shown sensitivity to interest rates, the incoming event may spark price swings.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the FOMC minutes have triggered upside moves of as much as 2.2% or declines of 1% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    2) US September CPI report

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the incoming inflation data may impact bets around how deep the Fed cuts rates in Q4.

Signs of cooling price pressures may boost expectations around lower interest rates, supporting Bitcoin as a result. The same is true vice versa.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.8% or declines of 2.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  • A hotter-than-expected CPI report could drag Bitcoin prices lower as the dollar strengthens and rate cut bets cool.
  • A soft inflation report may support the argument around lower US interest rates, boosting Bitcoin prices

 

    3) Technical forces

Bitcoin remains trapped within a range on the daily charts with support around $61,000 and resistance at $63,500 where the 200-day SMA resides. 

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $63,500 could encourage a move toward $65,000 $66,000.
  • A break below the 100-day SMA at $61,000 could see prices test $60,000. Sustained weakness below here may encourage bears to attack $57,600.

Bitcoin23

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
26 Sep

Bitcoin: Tests 200-day SMA ahead of Powell & US data

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin ↑ 6% since Fed cut last week
  • Fundamental spark could trigger price swings
  • Powell’s pre-recorded speech & US data in focus
  • Tough resistance at 200-day SMA
  • Technical levels – $68,250, $64,000 & $60,000

Bitcoin has struggled for direction since the Federal Reserve announced its 50-basis point rate cut last week.

Despite rising roughly 6% post-Fed decision, bulls failed to conquer the 200-day SMA at $64,000.

Note: Lower US interest rates may boost appetite for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Looking at the daily charts, prices seem to be trending higher but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought territory – signalling a potential throwback.

bITCOIN1

Still, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could experience big price swings with the right fundamental drivers. This may come in the form of a pre-recorded speech by Powell and key US data including the jobless claims in addition to the personal consumption expenditure gauge.

The biggest takeaways from the Fed decision last week were:

  • Dot plot projections showed two more 25 bp cuts expected.
  • Future rate cuts would be data-dependent.
  • Markets currently expect 75 bp of cuts by the end of 2024.

So, investors are likely to closely scrutinize Powell’s pre-recorded speech and US data for additional clues on the Fed’s next move in Q4.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 50 bp Fed cut by November with 75 bp worth of cuts priced in by the end of 2024.

Taking a deeper dive, the initial jobless claims is expected to rise 223k in the week ended September 21st. A figure that exceeds market forecasts could fuel fears over the health of the US labour market – supporting the argument for deeper rate cuts.

 

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the initial jobless claims have triggered upside moves as much as 1.5% or declines of 2% in a 6-hour window post- release.

 

Note: It will be worth keeping an eye on the second quarter GDP data (final print) which is expected to confirm that the US economy expanded 3%.

On Friday, Fed speeches and the US August PCE report will be in focus. Ultimately, further signs of cooling price pressures may reinforce bets around the Fed cutting rates by 75 bp by the end of 2024.

 

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the PCE report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.7% or declines of 2% in a 6-hour window post- release.

Looking at the technical picture…

Bitcoin is on breakout watch with prices lingering around the 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $64,000 may open a path toward $68,250.
  • Should $64,000 prove to be reliable resistance, this could trigger a selloff back towards the 100-day at $61,000 and $60,000 – where the 50-day SMA resides.

bITCOIN2

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
24 Jul

Spot Ethereum ETFs go live!

By ForexTime 

  • Ethereum ETF’s exceed $100 million inflows on debut
  • Collective trading volume of ETFs surpass $1 billion
  • Cryptocurrency ↑ 50% since start of 2024
  • Technical levels – 21 & 50 day SMA

Only a few months ago we discussed the possibility of Ethereum ETFs after Bitcoin paved the way.

Earlier this week, Ethereum ETFs finally went live – marking another watershed moment in the digital asset space. And its debut yesterday did not disappoint, bringing in over $100 million of inflows despite the massive $484 million outflows from Grayscale’s freshly converted Ethereum Trust.

Note: An ETF is a derivative that enables traders to benefit from changes in the underlying asset’s price without owning it.

Like we have seen with Bitcoin ETFs, this crucial development may lead to increased exposure to Ethereum – providing greater and easier access without owning it. In addition, the second crypto adoption could open the floodgates for more ETF adoptions, with fresh anticipation for a Solana ETF soon.

Despite the collective trading volume of the nine new spot ETFs surpassing over $1 billion, Ethereum offered a muted response. Prices are trading around 3466 as of writing, trapped within a range on the daily charts.

Still, Ethereum is up over 50% since the start of 2024 and may push higher if the new Ether ETFs attract fresh inflows from investors and institutions.

Since reaching all-time highs on March 12th, 2024, Ethereum seems to be morphing into a descending triangle.

After bouncing off the support of the descending triangle on July 8th, 2024, the cryptocurrency rallied for 8 consecutive days and has remained in a range for the past 9 days.

The last 6-days have seen Ethereum prices close above its 50-day moving average and the cryptocurrency bulls may look to the following near-term resistance levels.

  • $3547.34: The resistance of the current range-bound channel

  • $3686: An important price level

Ethereum bears on the other hand will have their sights on the following near-term support level.

  • $3408.04; The 50-day simple moving average

  • $3385.39; The support level of the current range-bound area

  • $3262.77; The 21-day simple moving average

Ether

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
05 Jul

Bitcoin is down to $55,000. Switzerland is seeing a further decline in inflation

By JustMarkets 

The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the US Independence Day celebrations.

On Friday, the dollar index held near 105, hovering at three-week lows as investors await the release of an important US jobs report expected to show further signs of a cooling labor market, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates. Earlier this week, data indicated an unexpected contraction in service sector activity and disappointing US private sector employment figures, supporting a dovish view of Fed policy. Markets currently estimate the probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September at around 73%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell below $55,000 on Friday, hitting its lowest level since late February, and has lost about 13% this week, which analysts attributed to further liquidation by leveraged investors. The collapse has also been exacerbated by concerns that the payment by bankrupt Japanese exchange Mt. Gox of more than $9 billion in bitcoins to some 127,000 creditors is likely to trigger massive profit-taking. Analysts speculate that markets are trying to get ahead of the lenders’ flows, causing prices to plummet. Moreover, billionaire Bitcoin investor Peter Thiel recently revealed that he sold most of his shares due to expectations of increased volatility. The second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum (ETH/USD), also fell about 16% this week despite expectations that US regulators will approve the first Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds later this month.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.86%.

Polling companies predict that Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement Nationale will not win an absolute majority in Sunday’s French legislative elections. Four polls released on Wednesday and Thursday suggest the far-right group and its allies could win between 190 and 250 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. That is well below the 289 seats that would allow it to pass bills and push its agenda easily. A second round of snap elections will be held on Sunday.

The UK also voted yesterday. The exit polls’ results are clear: Labor will rule with a significant majority for the next five years. Analysts see this political shift as favorable for the British pound, equities, and investment in the UK as a whole, as it revives the UK’s reputation as a safe-haven.

Swiss inflation unexpectedly declined, which is encouraging for Swiss National Bank officials who have lowered borrowing costs for two consecutive meetings. Consumer prices in June were 1.3% from a year earlier. That’s less than economists had expected and below May’s 1.4%, the fastest pace this year. A 0.2% year-on-year decline in the cost of goods contributed to the slowdown, while services rose by 2.4%. Core inflation also fell to 1.1%, defying expectations of an acceleration.

WTI crude oil prices held near $84 per barrel on Friday and were set to rise for the fourth consecutive week as lower US crude inventories and signs of strong seasonal demand supported oil prices. The US crude prices were up about 3% this week. The US EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 12.2 million barrels last week, well above expectations of a 680,000 barrel decline. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over oil supplies following reports that Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate near the border.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.19%.

Japan’s index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook several months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose to 111.1 in May 2024 from a final reading of 110.9 in the previous month, the lowest in three months.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,537.02 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,308.00 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 18,450.48 +75.95 (+0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,241.26 +70.14 (+0.86%)

USD Index 105.13 −0.28 (−0.26%)

Important events today:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
02 Jul

Bitcoin: Set for potential price swings?

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin could be rocked by Fed minutes & NFP
  • Watch out for Mt. Gox developments
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 2.3% & ↓ 1.9%
  • Bearish channel breached but resistance at $63500

Thanks to the incoming US jobs report and developments concerning the failed Mt. Gox exchange, this could be a wild week for Bitcoin!

Despite prices rebounding from sub-$60k, sentiment remains fragile with a major liquidation event and uncertainty over US interest rates keeping bears in the game.

Looking at the technical picture, Bitcoin remains in a range on the weekly charts with potential resistance forming around $63500.

With all the above said, here are 4 things that could rock Bitcoin this week:

    1) FOMC minutes

The Fed minutes on Wednesday will be an appetizer before the main course on Friday.

Investors will be seeking insight into why Fed officials lowered their expectations for 2024 rate cuts despite growth and unemployment projections unchanged.

  • Bitcoin may slip if the minutes sound more hawkish than expected.
  • Should the minutes strike a dovish note, Bitcoin prices may edge higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Fed minutes have triggered upside moves of as much as 1.6% or declines of 1.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    2) Bankrupt Tokyo-based exchange Mt. Gox

From early July 2024, collapsed Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox is expected to start paying back users roughly $9 billion worth of stolen tokens.

Imagine losing 1 bitcoin worth roughly $500 back in 2014 and then receiving that same Bitcoin today worth around $60,000. What would you do?

There are expectations around the receivers of the stolen tokens cashing out, potentially triggering steep losses on Bitcoin.

 

    3) US jobs report

The incoming US jobs report is likely to influence bets around when the Fed cuts rates in H2.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 200k jobs in June, compared with the blockbuster 272k in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%.

It is worth keeping in mind that cryptocurrencies have shown sensitivity to interest rates due to their risky nature.

  • A soft jobs report may push Bitcoin prices higher.
  • If the jobs data exceeds market forecasts, this could drag Bitcoin prices lower.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 2.3% or declines of 1.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    4) Technical forces

Prices have breached the daily bearish channel, but resistance can be found at $63500.

  • Sustained weakness below $63500 may encourage a decline back towards $59000.
  • A solid daily close above $63500 could open a path towards the 100-day SMA and 50-day SMA.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
26 Jun

Bitcoin: Waits on key risk event

By ForexTime

  • Bitcoin ↓ over 8% on Monday
  • Roughly 2% above $60,000 support
  • Over past year US PCE triggered moves of ↑ 0.9% & ↓ 2.3%
  • Key point of interest – $60,000
  • Technical levels – $60,254.93, $57,5656.20 and $66,365.11

Bitcoin’s extended losses have set off alarm bells for bulls, with prices sinking below $60,000 for the first time since early May!

The world’s largest cryptocurrency collapsed over 8% on Monday thanks to cooling demand for Bitcoin ETFs and uncertainty over US interest rates. Developments revolving around the failed Mt. Gox exchange compounded the overall negativity, allowing sellers to dominate the scene.

Despite prices rebounding in the previous session, sentiment remains fragile with bears on standby to pounce again. In the near term, Bitcoin’s fate may be tied to Friday’s US PCE deflators.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core PCE has the potential to impact bets around when the central bank will cut rates in 2024. Any changes to these expectations may impact cryptocurrencies which have displayed sensitivity to interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point cut in September with a move fully priced in by November.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US PCE deflators have triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 2.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Taking a look at the technicals

With Bitcoins’ weekly price chart showing a potential double top, this PCE report could not be better timed to determine the cryptos’ next course of action- above or below the double top neckline.

Notice how volume declined into the second top of the pattern.

Bitcoin on the daily time frame may be in a potential symmetrical triangle, bouncing off the lower bound trendline (support) on yesterday’s price action.

Interestingly, this bounce off the support area of the symmetrical triangle coincides with an entry and exit out of the oversold zone of the RSI.  

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an indicator that highlights overbought and oversold zones.

Key levels to look out for in a decline include:

  • $60,254.93 – The neckline area of the potential double-top pattern
  • $57,5656.20 – The 200-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • $56,457.70 – The lowest price between Bitcoins all time High ($73,711.39) and the most recent swing high ($69,498.98)

In a rally, the following levels are significant points of interest

 

  • $66,365.11 – The 50-day simple moving average
  • $71,428 – The upper bound trendline of the symmetrical pattern

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
13 Jun

Target Thursday: 3 cryptos met expectations, with one surprise winner

By ForexTime

  • Cryptos soared post-CPI, tumbled after Fed
  • Avalanch rose as much as 6.2%, up 5.1% for the day
  • Solana rose as much as 6.3%, up 3.9% for the day
  • Chainlink rose as much as 6.9%, up 5.8% for the day
  • Dogecoin rose as much as 7.5%, up 5.5% for the day

 

It was a wild Wednesday for global financial markets!

Major US stock indices hit fresh record highs, while the US dollar saw its 2nd largest single-day decline so far this year!

Markets swung wildly as investors and traders reacted to the surprise cooling in US inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).

They also reacted to the Fed’s latest projections for fewer rate cuts this year.

The Fed’s just-released “dot plots” forecasted just one single rate cut for the year, fewer than the 3 previously forecasted back in March 2024.

However, in percentage terms, Wednesday belonged to cryptos – as expected.

 

We revisit our article published on Tuesday, June 11th, in which we asked the question:

“Which crypto could see the biggest moves this week?“

And here’s what we wrote:

“Of the 11 different cryptocurrencies offered by FXTM, Avalanch, Dogecoin and Solana have offered the biggest reactions to the US CPI prints and Fed decisions from the past 12 months.”

 

And once again, those 3 cryptos duly delivered massive moves on Wednesday, June 12th!

But they were pipped for the day’s total performance by a “dark horse” – Chainlink.

 

Here’s a recap of Wednesday’s full-day performance:

  1. Chainlink rose 5.8%
  2. Dogecoin rose 5.5%
  3. Avalanch rose 5.07%
  4. Solana rose 3.9%
  5. Cardano rose 3.5%
  6. Polygon rose 3.1%
  7. Ethereum rose 1.9%
  8. Ripple rose 1.9%
  9. Litecoin rose 1.7%
  10. Bitcoin Cash rose by 1.3%
  11. Bitcoin rose 1.2%

 

In terms of immediate post-CPI gains, Chainlink also managed to muscle its way into the leading pack:

  • Dogecoin rose as much as 7.5%
  • Chainlink rose as much as 6.9%
  • Solana rose as much as 6.3%
  • Avalanch rose as much as 6.2%

 

Then came along the Fed’s dot plot.

Cryptos then tumbled at the thought of higher-for-longer US interest rates.

Even those downside moves were massive for these 4 cryptos:

  • Solana fell as much as 6.7%
  • Dogecoin fell as much as 5%
  • Avalanch fell as much as 4.6%
  • Chainlink fell as much as 3.8%

 

Hence, with Chainlink’s smaller decline (in % terms), that explains why Chainlink was the biggest-gainer for Wednesday as a whole!

 

Those above-mentioned figures are also far superior compared to yesterday’s performance for Bitcoin – the world’s largest and most popular crypto:

  • Post-CPI: rose as much as 3.09%
  • Post-Fed: fell as much as 3.94%
  • ended Wednesday up just 1.2%

 

All in all, yesterday’s price action demonstrated yet again the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies.

Still, such big price moves may have been happy hunting grounds for traders with massive risk appetites who may have walked away with outsized profits, and perhaps a great trading story to tell as well.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
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