On Friday, US indices were not traded due to a public holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 2.33%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.00% over five trading days.

This week, market attention in the US will be focused on the release of the minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Reserve (June 16-17, 2026), at which the regulator under its new chair Kevin Warsh kept the interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. Investors will look for details of discussions on future tightening, considering the committee’s hawkish signal about readiness for further rate hikes before year‑end to combat inflationary pressure. In addition, the macroeconomic calendar includes important indicators of economic conditions. The ISM services PMI is expected to show sector resilience, and existing home sales may reach their highest level since the beginning of the year. A significant widening of the trade deficit to 78.8 billion dollars is also expected amid rising imports and declining exports. The market will also pay attention to consumer credit data and inflation expectations, which will complement the overall picture of economic slowdown amid persistent high inflation.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade near yearly lows, holding around 1.42 USD. The main factor pressuring the national currency remains the combination of unfavorable conditions in energy markets and high uncertainty in trade relations with the US. Despite the general weakening of the US dollar after the release of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, the Canadian dollar could not fully benefit from this, as falling global oil prices negatively affected the country’s trade balance, reinforcing expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

The Mexican peso at the beginning of July remains near 17.5 per dollar, balancing under the influence of conflicting factors. On one hand, the weakening of the US dollar amid weak June labor market statistics and correction in energy prices supports the national currency, reducing inflation risks. On the other hand, significant pressure comes from growing uncertainty surrounding North American trade relations, caused by the US administration’s decision not to extend the USMCA agreement in its current form.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (weekly +4.27%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.39% (weekly +1.54%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.92% (weekly +2.37%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.25% (weekly +1.63%).

The European agenda for the current week is focused on central bank signals and industrial sector recovery. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its June meeting, at which the regulator decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. Investors will analyze these details to assess the ECB’s further plans for monetary policy normalization amid slowing inflation. The macroeconomic calendar of Germany and other Eurozone countries shows cautious signs of recovery: German industrial production is expected to grow for the second consecutive month, and manufacturing orders are expected to begin recovering. At the same time, pressure on trade indicators persists: Germany’s trade surplus may shrink for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors on exports.

Brent crude oil prices at the beginning of July 2026 stabilized around 70-72 dollars per barrel, showing a pronounced downward trend amid weakening geopolitical premium. The key factor behind this decline was progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, which led to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and normalization of hydrocarbon shipments. As logistics routes recovered, export volumes from Persian Gulf countries increased significantly: Saudi Arabia’s exports returned to 90% of pre‑war levels, and shipments from the UAE and Iraq also showed steady recovery. The rise in global supply, coinciding with signs of slowing demand from China, forced investors and major financial institutions such as UBS and Morgan Stanley to revise oil price expectations downward, removing concerns about large‑scale supply disruptions from market pricing.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.47% (weekly +0.19%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.57% (weekly -2.77%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.28% (weekly +1.73%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 1.37% (weekly +0.77%).

In the upcoming week, the economic landscape of the Asia‑Pacific region will be shaped by central bank decisions and key inflation indicators. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be in focus: despite broad expectations of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike to 2.5%, some analysts allow for the possibility of keeping the current level at 2.25% due to the impact of falling energy prices on overall inflation risks. China will publish inflation data, where consumer prices are expected to remain at 1.2% while producer inflation accelerates to 4.1%. In Japan, the market will focus on a wide range of data, including household spending, producer prices, and a 37.4% increase in machinery orders, which, amid pressure on the yen, makes these reports critically important for assessing the resilience of the Japanese economy.