By RoboForex Analytical Department
The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6566 on Friday, marking its lowest since early August. The US dollar continued to strengthen last night, bolstered by signs of resilience in the US economy. Additionally, investors hold significant expectations for Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming presidential election next week.
Meanwhile, an unexpected improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity provided noticeable support for the Aussie. Given that China is Australia’s key trade and economic partner, the Australian dollar is highly responsive to developments in China.
Annual inflation in Australia eased to 3.5% in Q3 but remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2.0-3.0%. Producer prices rose more than expected in the third quarter, while retail sales declined in September. These mixed signals are keeping the Aussie under pressure.
Baseline expectations suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting next week.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
Free Reports:
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter
On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD market completed a wave of decline to 0.6536. Today, the market is forming a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout would signal the development of a growth wave towards 0.6656, viewed as a correction to the previous downtrend. Once this correction is completed, we may see a new decline towards 0.6492. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero near the lows and preparing to turn upwards.
On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6561, with a potential extension towards 0.6530. After this, we may see the beginning of an upward wave targeting 0.6655 as the first objective. This growth structure is expected to be part of a broader correction. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 20 mark and preparing to rise towards 80.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- AUDUSD holds near August lows: US dollar pressure remains strong Nov 1, 2024
- Stock indices under pressure ahead of US elections. Oil strengthened due to lower inventories Oct 31, 2024
- Australia has seen a sharp decline in inflationary pressures. Silver rose to $34 an ounce Oct 30, 2024
- AUD/USD Continues Downward Spiral Amid Economic Concerns Oct 30, 2024
- GBPUSD could be in for mid-week “sneaky surprise” Oct 30, 2024
- Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark. The Canadian dollar fell to last year’s lows Oct 29, 2024
- Brent Crude Oil Experiences Sharp Price Decline Oct 29, 2024
- EUR/USD Weakens Amid Global Economic Uncertainty and Strong US Dollar Oct 28, 2024
- Oil, Yen tumble after weekend turmoil Oct 28, 2024
- Bank of England may delay rate cut. Inflation in Tokyo continues to decline Oct 25, 2024