14 Sep

US inflation data came out mixed. The labor market in Australia remains resilient

September 14, 2023

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.20% at Wednesday’s close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.29%. US consumer prices rose to 3.7% y/y in August vs. 3.2% y/y in July, which was stronger than expectations of 3.6% y/y. However, the market was supported by core inflation data. Core CPI declined to 4.3% y/y in August from 4.7% y/y in July, which matched expectations and was the smallest increase in nearly two years.

Moderna (MRNA) rose more than 6% yesterday, leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks after it reported that a modified version of its flu shot met key targets in a late-stage trial, paving the way for FDA approval of the vaccine. Ford Motor (F) shares are up more than 2% after UBS upgraded them to a “buy” rating with a $15 price target. General Motors (GM) shares added nearly 1% after UBS upgraded their rating to “buy” from “neutral” with a $44 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 0.42% on Wednesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%.

Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.1% m/m in July, weaker than expectations of 0.9% m/m and the largest decline in 4 months. The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The probability of a 25bp ECB rate hike on Thursday rose to 64% from 46% after Reuters reported that the ECB’s inflation forecasts to be released today will remain above 3% in 2024, reinforcing support for a more hawkish ECB policy.

The weekly EIA report released on Wednesday was mostly bearish for crude oil and refined products. According to the EIA, crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.96 million barrels versus expectations for a decline of 2.475 million barrels. In addition, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 5.56 million barrels vs. expectations for a decline of 850k barrels as US gasoline demand fell by 10.9% week-on-week to 8.307 million BPD, the lowest in 7 months. It also should be noted that September and October are typically seasonally weak months for oil.

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Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.21% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.09%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday negative 0.74%.

After an unexpected drop in the number of jobs in Australia in July, there was an increase in August, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Immediately following the data release, the Australian dollar hit a nine-day-high, bolstering the case for the RBA to raise the rate again as inflation remains high and the labor market remains resilient. Incoming RBA chief Michelle Bullock warned that policy decisions would be made month by month, depending on economic data.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,467.44 +5.54 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,575.53 −70.46 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40)  15,654.03 −61.50 (−0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,525.99 −1.54 (−0.02%)

USD Index  104.76 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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