Today the focus of investors’ attention is on the PCE Price Index and the inflation rate in the Eurozone

March 31, 2023

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.73% on Thursday.

The US GDP for the first quarter of 2023 rose by 2.6%, indicating a resilient economy. The US jobless claims rose by 7,000 in the last week (forecast 5,000) to 198,000. The level remains extremely low, but analysts predict a sharp increase in the second quarter. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Thursday that he has not yet concluded what rate hike might be appropriate for the May meeting. According to the politician, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the bank situation affects consumer confidence, the business climate, business investment, consumer spending, and the availability of credit.

For now, banking stress in the United States seems to be under control. Leading US banking regulators said Monday that they plan to tell Congress that the overall financial system remains on solid footing, despite recent bank failures. On Tuesday, Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chairman for oversight, told the Senate Banking Committee that Silicon Valley Bank’s problems stemmed from “terrible” risk management, suggesting it could be an isolated incident.

There are many questions about what will happen to demand and inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said in a statement that US inflation remains too high, and recent indicators support the view that more work needs to be done to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Today, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will be released in the US, which is on the Fed’s list of monitored inflation indicators. A rise in this indicator could put the panic back into the market as it would indicate sustained inflationary pressures, which would force US Federal Reserve officials to continue raising rates.

Borrowing under the Fed’s Emergency Financing Program, a new emergency lending program launched after the Silicon Valley bank collapse, has gained momentum. Bank funding levels jumped from $10.7B to $64.4B. The new bank financing mechanism allows banks to borrow for up to one year using eligible assets, including any nominal bonds as collateral. The rise in lending signals that banks remain on high alert and are looking to shore up finances to reassure depositors at a time when the White House is calling for stricter regulation. President Joe Biden on Thursday urged regulators to step up oversight of banks, urging them to reinstate rules that the Trump administration repealed.

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Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 1.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.61%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Tuesday up by 0.74%.

The inflation level in European countries is beginning to decline. In Spain, the consumer price index fell sharply from 6% to 3.3% year-over-year. In Germany, inflation fell from 9.2% to 8.3%. Today, inflation data will be released by France (forecast 6.3% to 5.5% y/y) and Italy (forecast 9.1% to 8.2% y/y), and the total figure for the Eurozone will be published afterward. Analysts forecast a decline in consumer prices in Europe from 8.5% to 7.1%. But despite lower inflationary pressures, the ECB still intends to raise interest rates by 0.5% in May.

According to The Daily Telegraph, Britain is about to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP). This Indo-Pacific trade group will give British companies access to tens of millions of new customers and a $10 trillion market.

The US natural gas prices fell by 4% Thursday, once again hitting critical support of $2. Inventory data showed a decline of 47 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage, compared to a forecast of 55 billion. In other words, more gas remains in storage than previously planned. As a result, supply exceeds demand, which leads to further downward pressure on prices.

Asian markets were mostly on the rise yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.36%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.58% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) did not trade, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday with a 1.02% gain.

In Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, considered a leading indicator of overall inflation, fell last month from 3.3% to an annualized 3.2%. The fall in inflation was largely due to government subsidies on electricity prices. Earlier this year, the Japanese government deployed an additional 2 trillion yen to offer subsidies on some utilities to help curb high inflation.

Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data showed that activity in China’s service sector grew at its fastest pace in 12 years in March, but manufacturing activity slowed from the previous month, indicating an uneven recovery in Asia’s largest economy. The manufacturing sector plays a leading role in China’s economy and faces growing headwinds from sluggish demand overseas.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,050.83 +23.02 (+0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,859.03 +141.43 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40) 15,328.78 +193.62 (+1.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,620.43 +56.16 (+0.74%)

USD Index 102.17 -0.47 (-0.46%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Today the focus of investors’ attention is on the PCE Price Index and the inflation rate in the Eurozone