The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0099
• Prev Close: 1.0121
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

The European Central Bank started working on its quantitative easing (QT) program. Policymakers will potentially announce it formally at the ECB’s October meeting. There are a lot of speeches planned by ECB officials this week, so traders need to watch for new hints regarding the next steps in interest rate hikes. Special attention should be paid to the EU energy meeting. The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar as European Central Bank officials are in favor of further aggressive tightening of monetary policy.

• Support levels: 1.0111, 1.0016, 0.9971, 0.9912
• Resistance levels: 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price has consolidated above the priority change level and is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become positive, but the buying pressure remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0111. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance levels of 1.0230, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout of the level and reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1640
• Prev Close: 1.1679
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33 %

UK GDP rose by 0.2% last month. At the same time, industrial production decreased by 0.3%. GDP growth is small, but it’s positive. But on the other hand, falling economic indicators are still negatively affecting the British currency. The new British government has confirmed the independence of the Bank of England but hinted that the Bank of England should not be so aggressive in tightening as it will only worsen the already large number of problems in the economy.

• Support levels: 1.1623, 1.1516, 1.1449, 1.1400
• Resistance levels: 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hour timeframe has changed to bullish. At the moment, the price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1623, but only with confirmation. It is best to look for sell deals on intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1816.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 1.1449 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 142.11
• Prev Close: 142.82
• % chg. over the last day: +0.49 %

The Japanese Finance Ministry has repeatedly and strongly expressed its dissatisfaction with the yen depreciation this year, but the Central Bank is independent and is legally obliged to monitor inflation and the economy, not the exchange rate. So the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates or adjust its stimulus policy to support the yen. Japan’s economic weakness gives the Bank of Japan little reason to cancel monetary stimulus. The central bank intends to maintain ultra-low interest rates and a dovish policy at its meeting on September 21 and 22. When the Ministry of Finance expresses its dissatisfaction with the yen’s fall, it is said to hint that it may intervene in the market to support the currency. This is done to make traders cautious when selling the yen, a kind of verbal intervention.

• Support levels: 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
• Resistance levels: 144.05, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages, and a narrow balance is being formed. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 141.77 or 141.00, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be searched for on the intraday time frames from the level of 144.05, but only with an additional confirmation because, fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3029
• Prev Close: 1.2983
• % chg. over the last day: -0.35 %

The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen as the dollar index is down ahead of important US inflation data, while oil prices are rising on the back of the Iran nuclear deal being stalled again. All of these factors support the Canadian currency, which is a commodity currency. However, with new blockages in China due to falling demand, oil prices might drop in the coming days, which might negatively affect the Canadian currency.

• Support levels: 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
• Resistance levels: 1.3108, 1.3220

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become negative and the price has consolidated below the priority change level. But it should be noted that at the moment, it looks like the formation of a false breakdown, as the price is consolidating below the level. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2990 if the price returns above the level. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3108, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.