On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was cheaper by 0.16%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.51%. Concerns surrounding debt-funded investments in artificial intelligence intensified the sell-off in technology, energy, and communication services sectors: Broadcom lost over 4%, continuing its sharp decline from late last week, Oracle and Salesforce notably decreased, and ServiceNow plunged by more than 10% on rumors of a major acquisition and a rating downgrade. Most tech giants also traded in the red, although Nvidia and Tesla managed to post gains. Overall, the market adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of a busy week featuring the release of key US employment and inflation data, which could determine the further direction of momentum.

Today, the US will release the Non-Farm employment report. The report is coming out on an unusual day due to delays caused by the prolonged US government shutdown and combines data for October and November 2025, making it particularly important for assessing the state of the labor market and the trajectory of economic growth. According to the latest economic calendar and analysts’ expectations, markets anticipate a moderate increase in employment of around 50K, reflecting a continued slowdown in job growth after September (+119K). This could negatively impact investor sentiment and put pressure on both the Dollar Index and US stock indices. However, gold might gain momentum. Higher-than-expected employment and wage data would strengthen the dollar and could delay further Fed rate cuts in 2026.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above the 1.38 mark against the US dollar, reaching a three-month high, as markets assessed the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) firm stance and softer expectations regarding Fed policy. The Headline Consumer Price Index remained at 2.2%, and core measures fell to a ten-month low of 2.8%, increasing confidence that inflationary pressure is gradually moving towards the target level without the need for an abrupt policy change. In this environment, the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep the rate at 2.25% and its signal that the current policy is “roughly at the right level” curbed expectations of swift aggressive easing, stabilized interest rate differentials, and supported demand for the Canadian currency.

European stock markets were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed higher by 0.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.06%. Investor attention in Europe is focused on the ECB meeting, where markets expect rates to remain unchanged, but possibly an upward revision of GDP growth expectations following recent statements by Christine Lagarde. The Riksbank and Norges Bank are also likely to keep their policy parameters unchanged. The geopolitical background remains in focus due to negotiations between the US and Ukraine, especially after signals from Volodymyr Zelenskyy about readiness to postpone the issue of NATO membership.

WTI oil prices fell to around $56.3 per barrel, the lowest level since early 2021, as persistent pressure from oversupply outweighed the influence of geopolitical risks. The global market remains well-supplied with oil: high inventories, coupled with production growth in the US, Brazil, and Guyana, reinforce expectations that production growth rates will outpace demand growth until at least 2026, maintaining a physical supply surplus. On the demand side, weak signals from China, including a slowdown in industrial activity and the growing role of renewable energy in power generation, are adding pressure, fueling concerns about insufficient oil consumption growth.

Asian markets traded lower on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.31%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.72%. Market pressure came from weak November macroeconomic data from China: industrial production growth slowed to a 15-month low, and retail sales showed the weakest increase in nearly three years, dampening expectations for domestic demand. Against this backdrop, the technology sector fell by 2.5%, consumer staples by 2.1%, and real estate stocks declined by 1.6% after China Vanke bondholders refused to approve a payment extension, which again heightened default fears and underscored the continued stress in the Chinese construction sector.