• GBPUSD hits lowest level since November 2023

• Sterling expected to be most volatile in G10 space vs USD

• Bloomberg  FX model: GBPUSD has 72% of trading within 1.2054 – 1.2520 over 1-week period

• Bitcoin erases 2025 gains on strong US data

• Over past year NFP triggered moves on Bitcoin of ↑ 3.0% & ↓ 2.4%

GBPUSD has tumbled to its lowest level since November 2023!

The major currency pair extended declines below $1.23 this morning, falling as much as 1%.

Sterling is now the worst-performing G10 currency versus the dollar YTD.

Part of the GBPUSD’s selloff may be attributed to uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans.

But fears over the UK government fiscal outlook seems to be the key factor.

Britain’s 10-year borrowing jump to the highest level since 2008 – the global financial crisis.

This sparked concerns about Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s ability to meet her fiscal rules, fuelling speculation around tax hikes or reduced spending.

Against this backdrop, fears around stubborn UK inflation remain a key theme – signalling slower BoE rate cuts.

However, this provided little support to sterling as investors questioned the UK’s fiscal sustainability.

According to Bloomberg, the Pound is expected to be the most volatile G10 currency versus the USD over the next one-week.

The increased volatility could provide fresh trading opportunities.

Friday’s US jobs report is likely be the next major event that moves the GBPUSD.

Over the past 12 months, the 6 hours after the US NFP release has seen upwards moves for the GBPUSD as much as 0.3% or declines as much as 0.6%.

Looking at the charts, prices remain heavily bearish on the daily timeframe.

• Sustained weakness below 1.2300 may open a path towards 1.2200 and 1.2054 – the lower bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

• Should prices secure a daily close above 1.2300, bulls may target 1.2370 and 1.2400.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 72% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2054 – 1.2520 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

 

Bitcoin wobbles above $93,000

Bitcoin took a hit this week after strong US data cooled expectations around Fed rate cuts.

The “OG” crypto has tumbled over 6% this week – practically erasing its recent 2025 gains. Bears seem to be back in the picture, waiting for the next opportunity to strike. And this may be provided by Friday’s US jobs report which may shape Fed cut bets.

Over the past 12 months, the 6 hours after the US NFP release has seen upwards moves for the Bitcoin as much as 3% or declines as much as 2.4%.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin remains in a range on the daily charts with support at $93,000 and resistance at $100,000.

• A breakdown below $93,000 could see a decline toward $92,000 and $90,500.

• Should $93,000 prove to be reliable support, prices may rebound back toward the 50-day SMA at $97,250.