08 Jul

Skepticism about Biden’s continued participation in the re-election campaign is growing in the US. In France, the elections ended with uncertainty

July 8, 2024

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.17% (for the week +0.73%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.54% (for the week +1.43%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.90% (for the week +2.58%). Stock indices rose moderately on Friday, with the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (US100) setting new record highs. Stocks found support on Friday after the June US payrolls report bolstered the Fed’s outlook for interest rate cuts this year.

US non-farm payroll employment for June rose by 206,000, exceeding expectations of 190,000. However, May’s non-farm employment data was revised downward to 218,000 from the previously announced 272,000. In addition, the June unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 0.1 to a 2–1.5 year high of 4.1%, indicating a weaker labor market than expected with no change at 4.0%. Average hourly earnings for June declined to 3.0% y/y from 4.1% y/y in May, which matched expectations and was the slowest growth rate in 3 years.

President Joe Biden has faced growing skepticism within his own party about his potential 2024 re-election campaign. Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois and Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota have publicly urged Biden to reconsider his intention to run for president again. Quigley and Craig’s calls for Biden to resign were a notable development given their status as members of his party. The growing voices of dissenters within the Democratic Party indicate a search for alternative strategies or candidates that could strengthen their chances in the upcoming electoral contest.

The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) fell more than 3% to a 4-month low on Friday. Concerns over the possible sale of Bitcoin by lenders and governments have put pressure on digital assets. Administrators of the bankrupt Mt Gox exchange are returning $8 billion of Bitcoin to creditors, and uncertainty over how much of that will eventually be sold is weighing on the overall market. According to Arkham Intelligence, a wallet linked to Mt Gox moved $2.7 billion worth of tokens on Friday. There were also signs that German authorities are preparing to sell some of the 50,000 bitcoins seized earlier from online criminals, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.14% (week ended +1.31%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26% (week ended +0.03%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.39% (week ended -0.57%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.45% (week ended +0.49%).

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In France, opinion polls showed that no party is likely to win a clear majority in the parliamentary elections. The left-wing Alliance is projected to win up to 198 seats, Macron’s centrists are likely to win up to 169 seats, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally will come in third with up to 143 seats. The election results have raised fears of further political uncertainty and market volatility as France’s legislature will be in a vacuum, and the prospect of a left-wing government will raise fiscal risks.

The UK Labor Party returned to government for the first time since 2010 and promised to launch its plan to fix the economy. In particular, there are several difficult short-term decisions to be made on public sector pay, fuel duty, and health funding. Solving them will cost £10 billion, according to official estimates and think tank calculations. Another £20 billion or more will be needed for a long-term fix to public services, according to the International Monetary Fund. The question is how the new Chancellor of the Exchequer will be able to do this when the debt ratio is close to 100%, growth rates are anemic, and the tax burden is the highest in decades.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $83 a barrel on Monday, extending the previous session’s losses as traders continue to assess last week’s mixed US jobs data. The latest data has raised concerns that the US economy, the world’s largest oil consumer, could slow down and affect oil demand. In addition, the growing likelihood of a ceasefire in Gaza has dampened estimates of strong summer fuel demand.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained by 2.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.68%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.71%.

The Australian dollar rose as high as $0.675, hitting new six-month highs amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may fall behind the global rate-cutting cycle or even raise interest rates again on the back of strong inflation data for May. Markets currently rate the probability of the RBA raising rates at its next meeting in August as slightly less than even, while the likelihood of a rate cut this year has been ruled out.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,567.19 +30.17 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,375.87 +67.87 (+0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 18,475.45 +24.97 (+0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,203.93 −37.33 (−0.45%)

USD Index 104.88 −0.26 (−0.24%)

Important events today:
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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