26 Jul

MAS has maintained a monetary policy. Japan’s inflation is on the rise

July 26, 2024

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.20%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.51%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.93%. Stocks continued to decline on Thursday amid weakness in chip stocks and selloffs in several individual stocks driven by negative earnings surprises. In addition, the market continues to worry about weakening economic growth despite Thursday’s slightly stronger-than-expected US economic reports.

The US real GDP grew 2.8% (annualized) in the second quarter, beating expectations of 2.0% and up from the 1.4% growth in the first quarter. The GDP report helped ease market fears of lower consumer spending and a slowing economy. Looking ahead, markets expect US GDP to decline to 2.0% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. In addition, personal consumption rose 2.3% in Q3, exceeding expectations of 2.0% and up from Q1’s 1.5% increase. The US weekly initial jobless claims declined by 8,000 to 235,000, indicating a modest strengthening of the labor market compared to expectations of a decline to 238,000. June durable goods orders excluding defense and aviation, an indicator of corporate capital spending in the US, rose 1.0%, stronger than expectations of 0.2%.

Equity markets in Europe were declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.58%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.40%. European equities closed sharply lower on Thursday, extending the sell-off from the previous session amid weak corporate results. ASML shares continued their bearish momentum and closed 4% lower, representing a 20% decline over the past two weeks

WTI crude oil prices recovered from earlier losses to reach $78.28 per barrel on Thursday, helped by stronger-than-expected economic growth in the US and lower crude inventories. Despite these factors, oil prices remain near six-week lows due to concerns over lower oil imports and refinery activity in China amid sluggish economic growth.

The US natural gas (XNGUSD) prices fell to $2.05/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories. The US utilities added 22 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas to storage last week, beating market expectations of a 15 Bcf increase. Gas storage levels are now 16.4% above the 5-year average. Natural gas prices are set to decline for a second week due to higher production.

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Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.29%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.25 per dollar after hitting a more than two-month high in the previous session, likely due to a technical correction. Earlier, the yuan’s appreciation was attributed to state bank intervention, which took advantage of the weakening US dollar by aggressively selling the dollar and buying yuan in offshore and domestic markets to support its appreciation.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left monetary policy on hold for July 2024, extending the pause for the 5th consecutive time amid moderate imported inflation. The Central Bank said it will maintain the prevailing pace of appreciation of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), with no change to its breadth and the level at which it is pegged. MAS noted that the city-state’s core inflation, the Consumer Price Index for all goods, declined to 2.8% y/y in Q2 2024 from 3.0% in Q1. At the same time, it maintained estimates for core inflation at 2.5–3.5% this year, noting a further slowdown in Q4 to around 2% in 2025.

Tokyo Japan’s core consumer price index rose to 2.2% year-on-year in July 2024, accelerating for the third straight month to the highest level since March, confirming the need for the central bank to normalize policy. The latest data also matched market expectations and followed a 2.1% rise in June. Next week’s BoJ meeting is expected to discuss the need to raise interest rates to defend the yen and combat inflationary pressures. Tokyo’s inflation data is widely seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,399.22 −27.91 (−0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,935.07 +81.20 (+0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 18,298.72 −88.74 (−0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,186.35 +32.66 (+0.40%)

USD Index 104.39 0 (0%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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