By RoboForex Analytical Department
AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market.
The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell highlighted the need for further economic data to assess the disinflationary trends, suggesting a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This uncertainty around US monetary policy has led to a dip in the USD, boosting AUD.
Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a vigilant stance on inflation, with recent minutes suggesting a potential rate hike if inflationary pressures escalate. This possibility lends some support to the Australian dollar. Recent economic data from Australia, including a spike in May’s retail sales and continued private sector growth in June, further bolsters this perspective.
Market speculation hints at a potential RBA rate increase in August, with forthcoming data likely to provide clearer indicators of this likelihood.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
Free Reports:
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter
The AUD/USD pair navigates within a broad consolidation range, forming a diverging “Triangle” around 0.6662. Currently, there is potential for the price to ascend to 0.6702. Upon reaching this level, a retraction to 0.6662 is anticipated, with a potential downward break targeting 0.6555 before resuming upward movements towards 0.6737. The MACD indicator supports this growth scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and upwards.
On the hourly chart, a tight consolidation has been observed around 0.6662. The expected trajectory involves an ascent to 0.6690, potentially extending to 0.6702. This growth forecast is underscored by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80, suggesting an impending downward adjustment to around 50.
Market outlook
As the global financial landscape navigates through mixed economic signals and central bank policies, the AUD/USD pair will likely continue to experience volatility. Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications to gauge the potential shifts in monetary policy, especially from the RBA and the Fed, which could significantly influence the currency pair’s movements in the near term.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- Bitcoin hits new record high just shy of $82,000! Nov 11, 2024
- The Dow Jones broke the 44 000 mark, and the S&P 500 topped 6 000 for the first time. The deflationary scenario continues in China Nov 11, 2024
- AUD/USD Stabilises as Traders Await Economic Signals Nov 11, 2024
- COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum Nov 10, 2024
- COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month & 10-Year Bonds Nov 10, 2024
- COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil Nov 10, 2024
- COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Nov 10, 2024
- EUR/USD Stabilises, Considers Trump’s Impact Nov 8, 2024
- World central banks continue to cut interest rates. US stock indices break records again Nov 8, 2024
- The Trump presidency will exacerbate international relations, especially concerning China and Europe Nov 7, 2024