18 Jun

The RBA kept interest rates on hold and remained hawkish. Oil rises as global demand outlook improves

June 18, 2024

By JustMarkets

At the end of yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.49%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.77%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.95%. On Monday, the S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at a record high, ignoring rising Treasury yields, with technology stocks continuing to rise amid continued Fed speeches. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday that he expects only one rate cut if the economy performs as expected, as current rate levels are likely to keep inflation lower and prevent the risk of higher inflation. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at 8% for the next FOMC meeting on 30–31 July and 59% for the 17–18 September meeting.

Also positive for US equities, Citigroup raised its outlook for US equities to “overweight” from “neutral.” It lowered its outlook for European equities to “neutral” from “overweight,” citing a “significantly greater pro-growth bias in the US compared to Europe.”

Moderna (MRNA) closed down over 1% on signs of insider selling after director Afeyan sold $2.21 million shares last Wednesday. Tesla (TSLA) closed higher by more than 5% after Bloomberg reported that the company received approval to test its advanced driver assistance system on streets in China.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.91%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.30% and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.06%. French political risks eased slightly with Marine Le Pen saying she would cooperate with French President Macron if she wins the upcoming French election.

WTI crude oil prices held above the $80 per barrel mark on Tuesday, having risen nearly 2% in the previous session, thanks to an improving global demand outlook and expectations that major oil producers will keep supply low. Recent market outlook reports from OPEC, the International Energy Agency, and the US Energy Information Administration pointed to strong growth in oil demand in the second half of this year. Oil prices also followed a broad rally in risk assets as easing inflationary pressures in major economies boosted hopes of interest rate cuts in the coming months.

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Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.83%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.31%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.35% at its June meeting, leaving borrowing costs unchanged for the fifth time. At the same time, the Central Bank again warned that inflation is still above the mid-point of the target range of 2–3% due to the continued high cost of services. The board is still not ruling anything out and will rely on incoming data. At the same time, there have been signs of softening economic activity, as evidenced by slowing GDP growth, rising joblessness, and slower-than-expected wage growth.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Japanese Parliament that he may raise interest rates again at the July meeting depending on upcoming economic data. He also noted that rising import costs caused by a weak yen could hurt household spending but added that rising wages could boost consumption. This could be the foundation for a trend reversal in the yen.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,473.23 +41.63 (+0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,778.10 +188.94 (+0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 18,068.21 +66.19 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,142.15 −4.71 (−0.06%)

USD Index 105.34 −0.21 (−0.2%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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