13 May

The German index has hit an all-time high. China sees rising consumer inflation

May 13, 2024

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.32% (for the week +1.94%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.16% (for the week +1.56%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.03% (for the week +0.82%).

On Friday, several FOMC officials gave their comments on plans. Fed Chair Michelle Bowman said that the Fed needs to maintain confidence in inflation by moving cautiously and deliberately toward our 2% target. She said the Fed needs to keep rates unchanged for a while longer. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview that he expects only one 25 bps rate cut this year, which will come at the end of the year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it was too early to consider a rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is waiting to see if inflation slows. He also said he did not rule out the need for another rate hike, although he noted that the bar would be high for such a decision. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who takes a less hawkish view, said there is little evidence that inflation has stalled at 3%.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary May Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.8 points to a 6-month low of 67.4, weaker than market expectations. At the same time, US consumers’ inflation expectations rose. The expected inflation indicator from the University of Michigan for May rose by 0.3 points to 3.5% from April’s 3.2% and was stronger than expectations of an unchanged 3.2%. In addition, the May 5–10-year inflation expectations indicator rose to 3.1% from April’s 3.0%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.46% (for the week +4.29%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed Friday up 0.38% (for the week +3.05%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.50% (for the week +2.09%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63% (for the week +3.20%).

The DAX (DE40) index gained nearly 0.5% on Friday to close at a record high of 18,773, extending its weekly gain to 4.3% as investors remain optimistic that major central banks will soon begin cutting interest rates. Minutes from the ECB’s latest meeting coincided with the current view that the Central Bank should cut rates in June as the cycle’s governor agreed that inflation is approaching the target faster. Positive corporate developments also boosted sentiment. Siemens shares jumped by 2.3%, closing at an all-time high among the leaders.

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WTI crude oil prices fell below $78 a barrel on Monday, extending losses from the previous session as uncertainty over demand pressured the market. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday as US Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rates could remain elevated for a long time, dampening growth and fuel demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the upcoming OPEC meeting in early June, where the group is expected to extend supply cuts for the year’s second half.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.57% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.57%.

China’s annualized inflation rate for April 2024 rose to 0.3% compared to market estimates and March’s 0.1%. This was the third consecutive month of rising consumer inflation amid a continued recovery in domestic demand despite a fragile economic recovery. On the other hand, producer prices in China fell to 2.5% y/y in April 2024, compared to market forecasts of a 2.3% y/y drop following a 2.8% y/y decline in March. The figure marked the 19th consecutive month of factory price declines, underscoring continued economic uncertainty despite numerous support measures from the government. The offshore yuan depreciated around 7.24 per dollar, reacting to key economic data from China.

The NAB Australia Business Confidence Index for April 2024 stood at 1, unchanged for the second consecutive month and below its long-term average. Weak sentiment in retail, wholesale trade, and mining offset leisure and personal services, construction, and manufacturing improvements.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,222.68 +8.60 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,512.84 +125.08 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,772.85 +86.25 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,433.76 +52.41 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.31 +0.09 (+0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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