By RoboForex Analytical Department
The price of Brent crude oil is currently experiencing a downturn, trading around 82.55 USD per barrel this Monday. The primary concern affecting the market today is the uncertainty surrounding demand levels, exerting significant pressure on the commodity.
Recent statements from representatives of the US Federal Reserve have led to expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period. This prospect of sustained high rates is likely to dampen economic growth, which could, in turn, negatively impact fuel demand from American consumers. The likelihood that the Fed will maintain current lending rates throughout the year is considered relatively high.
Additionally, data released on Friday showed a marked decline in US consumer confidence, reinforcing concerns that the economy might be losing its growth momentum. As we approach the summer season, traditionally a peak period for fuel consumption, the latest reports indicate rising stocks of petrol and distillates in the US. However, demand appears lacklustre, contradicting typical seasonal trends.
The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for early June. The group is expected to extend its production quotas into the second half of the year, a decision that could further impact oil price movements.
Brent technical analysis
Free Reports:
Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
The Brent H4 chart’s initial growth impulse to 84.24 has been completed, and the subsequent correction wave nearing 82.02 is almost finished. We anticipate the formation of a consolidation range above this level. If the price breaks upwards from this range, a growth to the level of 85.00 is expected, potentially extending to 88.00. This bullish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero but pointing upwards from the lows.
On the H1 chart, after completing the growth structure to 84.24, the market has finalised its correction at 82.02. A consolidation range above this level is expected to form. A breakout upwards from this range could initiate a new growth wave towards 85.00. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this potential upward movement, with its signal line currently above 20 and aiming towards 80, suggesting a bullish momentum could be building.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- The Dollar Index strengthened on Powell’s comments. The Bank of Mexico cut the rate to 10.25% Nov 15, 2024
- EURUSD Faces Decline as Fed Signals Firm Stance Nov 15, 2024
- Gold Falls for the Fifth Consecutive Trading Session Nov 14, 2024
- Profit-taking is observed on stock indices. The data on wages in Australia haven’t met expectations Nov 13, 2024
- USD/JPY at a Three-Month Peak: No One Opposes the US Dollar Nov 13, 2024
- Can Chinese Tech earnings offer relief for Chinese stock indexes? Nov 13, 2024
- Bitcoin hits an all-time high above $88,000. Oil remains under pressure Nov 12, 2024
- Brent Crude Stumbles as Market Sentiments Turn Cautious Nov 12, 2024
- Bitcoin hits new record high just shy of $82,000! Nov 11, 2024
- The Dow Jones broke the 44 000 mark, and the S&P 500 topped 6 000 for the first time. The deflationary scenario continues in China Nov 11, 2024
