Today, investor interest is focused on the FOMC minutes

January 3, 2024

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was up 0.07%, while the S&P 500 (US500) index decreased by 0.57% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.63% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) fell to a one-week low, and the NASDAQ (US100) fell to a 2-week low.

Weakness in technology stocks pressured the overall market. Apple (AAPL) shares fell more than 3% yesterday after Barclays downgraded it to a low rating due to concerns about low demand for the iPhone. Shares of chip companies are also under pressure after Bloomberg News reported that ASML Holding NV canceled some shipments of its chip-making machines to China at the request of the Biden administration.

S&P’s US manufacturing PMI for the decade was unexpectedly revised downward to a 6-month low of 47.9 against expectations of an upward revision to 48.4. Tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran sent a warship into the Red Sea after the US Navy sank three Houthi boats On Sunday.

The December FOMC minutes will be released in the US today. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear at the December US FOMC meeting that he would like to start cutting rates in 2024, so it is unlikely that there will be any significant revelations in the FOMC minutes. What matters most now is predicting how much the US Fed will cut rates this year. Economists are currently forecasting the probability of a US Fed rate cut in 2024 at 160 basis points. This seems excessive since the US economy is not in recession, and Fed officials are only forecasting three rate cuts of 25 basis points (totaling -75 bps) in 2024. The minutes of the December meeting where these projections were released may reinforce the view that only moderate policy easing will be needed for the year. This may give some confidence to the US dollar, as expectations of a 75-point decline are well below 160. A more dovish FOMC minutes would only increase economists’ confidence in excessive rate cuts, which would hurt the dollar but would be positive for indices and precious metals.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.11%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.16% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.79% yesterday, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.15%.

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The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for the decade was revised upward by 0.2 to 44.4 from an earlier reading of 44.2, but this was the eighteenth consecutive month of declining manufacturing activity.

Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up early gains and declined on Tuesday, falling to 3-week lows. The rally in the dollar index is bearish for energy prices. But rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as lower oil production by major producers, will keep oil from declining significantly in the medium term.

Silver (XAG/USD) was pressured yesterday by concerns over demand for industrial metals after the US S&P Manufacturing Activity Index for December was unexpectedly revised downward to a 6-month low, China’s Manufacturing Activity Index for December unexpectedly contracted at the sharpest pace in 6 months, and the S&P Eurozone Manufacturing Activity Index for December contracted for the eighteenth consecutive month.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading due to holidays, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.37% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.52% on Tuesday (year-to-date -15.38%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.49% on the day.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,742.83 −27.00 (−0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,715.04 +25.50 (+0.07%)

DAX (DE40) 16,769.36 +17.72 (+0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,721.52 −11.72 (−0.15%)

USD Index 102.23 +0.90 (+0.88%)

News feed for 2024.01.03:

– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Today, investor interest is focused on the FOMC minutes