20 Nov

PBoC left key rates unchanged. OPEC+ plans to cut production to support oil prices

November 20, 2023

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.01% (+2.01% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.13% (+2.44% for the week). On Friday, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.08% (+2.76% for the week). The broad market initially went down on Friday as bond yields rose following Friday’s economic news from the US showing an unexpected increase in October housing starts and building permits, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. However, bond yields retreated from highs towards the end of the trading session, allowing stocks to recover towards the end of the trading session.

On Friday, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes the Fed is at or near peak interest rates, but San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daly and Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasized the need for more evidence of cooling inflation.

According to Bank of America, EPFR Global data showed global equity funds attracted US$23.5 billion in the week to November 15, the second-largest inflow this year. This indicates that funds are building up positions in equities and, therefore, believe in further growth amid the end of the tightening cycle by the US Federal Reserve.

X (formerly Twitter) billionaire owner Elon Musk has been ratcheting up tensions with his posts on the platform supporting an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory. IBM, NBCUniversal, and parent company Comcast said they would stop advertising on X after it was reported that their ads appeared alongside content supporting the anti-Semitic movement. On Thursday and Friday, ads from Apple, Oracle, Amazon, and NBA Mexico were also placed next to anti-Semitic material on X, and there is a high probability that these companies will also stop using the platform. The value of company X continues to plummet. Twitter was sold for $44 billion dollars, and X is now valued at $11 billion dollars.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.84% (week-to-date +4.15%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.91% (week-to-date +2.32%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.97% (week-to-date +3.74%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.26% (week-to-date +1.95%).

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On Friday, ECB Governing Council representative and Bundesbank President Nagel said that borrowing costs should remain high for a sufficient period of time and an ECB rate cut is highly unlikely in the near term. His colleague, ECB Governing Council representative Holzmann, also said that it would be too early for the ECB to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year, and in general, market expectations for a rate cut are premature. At the moment, the ECB still prefers to stick to tight monetary policy, but if the pace of wage growth starts to shift downward in the near future, the current ECB stance will soften sharply, and the door for rate cuts will be open.

A new budget will be presented in the UK this week. UK Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt said that the government can afford to cut some taxes in the face of lower inflation, but cuts to social benefits will accompany any cut. Hunt also said the government needs to reform the welfare system to get more people back to work. Economists believe Wednesday’s autumn budget will also include relief for businesses and wealthy property owners. The tax cuts, along with improvements in the labor market, will improve economic performance but could be factored in more persistent inflation next year.

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose sharply Friday and recovered much of Thursday’s sharp sell-off. Oil prices also rose after Goldman Sachs said it expects OPEC to act to support oil prices. As early as next Sunday, OPEC+ will consider deepening oil production cuts. This could lead to a sharp gap up at the market opening on Monday, November 27. Goldman Sachs believes OPEC+ countries will ensure Brent Crude oil prices in the $80 to $100 range in 2024, providing a moderate deficit.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.34% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.04% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 1.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 1.04%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC), as expected, kept key lending interest rates near record lows. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China injected about 80 billion yuan of additional liquidity into the markets. However, Chinese equities were mostly supported by the rise in real estate stocks after Chinese regulators pledged to provide additional policy support to the struggling real estate sector.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,514.02 +5.78 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,947.28 +1.81 (+0.01%)

DAX (DE40)  15,919.16  +132.55 (+0.84%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,504.25 +93.28 (+1.26%)

USD Index  103.82 −0.53 (−0.51%)

News feed for 2023.11.20:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 20:45 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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