03 Nov

Germany’s unemployment rate is on the rise. SNB has reached its inflation target

November 3, 2023

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.70%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.78% yesterday. All three indices hit two-week highs. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again drove bond yields lower and supported stocks.

Thursday’s economic news out of the US was primarily dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 210,000. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 4.7% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the highest in 3 years.

Apple (AAPL) posted its fourth consecutive loss on revenue of $89.5 billion, down 1% from the previous quarter. The company’s stock fell more than 3.5% on the report. Starbucks (SBUX) closed higher by more than 9% after reporting Q4 comparable sales growth of 8.0%, beating the consensus forecast of 6.31%. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting adjusted Q4 revenue of $8.67 billion. Moderna (MRNA) declined more than 6% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting a third-quarter loss per share of $9.53 after including $3.1 billion in redundancy costs and tax benefits. Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 3% after reporting Q4 revenue guidance of $2.13 billion to $2.17 billion, which was worse than expected.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.48%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.85% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.04%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 1.42%.

The number of unemployed in Germany for October rose by 30,000, exceeding expectations of 14,000, indicating a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 5.8% in October, matching expectations and the highest rate in 2 years. Comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Knott indicate that he favors a pause in ECB rate hikes.

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On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted 6-3 to keep its key interest rate at 5.25%. It said the restrictive policy will likely be needed for an extended period to contain inflation. Bank of England Governor Bailey said policymakers are watching to see if further rate hikes will be required and that it is very early to think about cutting rates.

Swiss inflation remained at 1.7% y/y in October, matching the market consensus. The core rate rose to 1.5% y/y from 1.3%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has ensured that inflation is within the 0%-2% target range. One of the reasons the SNB has been able to keep inflation below target is the strong Swiss franc, which has kept inflation from rising. However, the SNB has expressed concern that inflation could exceed the 2% ceiling as electricity, rent, and public transportation costs have increased.

The EIA natural gas inventories report released Thursday showed an increase of 79 Bcf, which was in line with the consensus forecast but above the 5-year average of 57 Bcf. As of October 27, natural gas inventories were up 7.9% y/y and 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating ample natural gas reserves ahead of the winter months.

In the Middle East, Israeli soldiers entered Gaza City, completing the encirclement of the urban area that is home to the main forces of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but now face a host of challenges in fighting in the dense urban environment.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.10% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.75% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive at 0.90%.

Major Australian banks, including ANZ, ING, and Macquarie, raised home loan interest rates in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,317.78 +79.92 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,839.08 +564.50 (+1.70%)

DAX (DE40)  15,143.60 +220.33 (+1.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,446.53 +104.10 (+1.42%)

USD Index  106.14 −0.75 (−0.70%)

News feed for 2023.11.03:
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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