The recessionary sentiment is intensifying in the United States. Japanese policymakers are once again talking about intervention

June 26, 2023

The US stock indices fell on Friday as technology stocks caused the NASDAQ (US100) to decline and interrupted an eight-week upward move. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.65% (-2.14% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.77% (-2.09% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed negative by 1.01% on Friday (-2.64% for the week).

Speaking last week in the House and Senate, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months. After that, 10-year bond yields fell a full percentage point below 2-year rates, deepening the inversion of the yield curve that is usually seen as a harbinger of recession.

Fed Richmond President Tom Barkin said he is not sure inflation is on a steady downward trajectory toward the Fed’s 2% target. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said two more rate hikes this year is a “very reasonable” projection.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.99% (-2.72% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.55% on Friday (-2.58% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) was down by 1.01% (-1.98% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.54% (-2.34% for the week).

Friday’s portion of disappointing Eurozone business activity statistics may cause a change in sentiment inside the ECB. Eurozone manufacturing activity worsened its decline in June, falling to 43.6 from 44.8 in May, reaching its lowest level in 37 months, a sign that the manufacturing recession is getting worse. Unless demand conditions in the region stabilize and improve soon, the ECB will have a hard time justifying further rate hikes, as a more restrictive stance could trigger a deeper recession.

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A look at the yield on UK securities reveals the current problems and points to a recession. Two- and five-year fixed mortgage rates have risen sharply since the Bank of England began raising rates more than a year ago, and repayment costs are skyrocketing. Rates are expected to be even higher in the coming months, consumer spending will fall sharply, and this will hit the UK economy.

Oil prices rose in early trading in Asia on Monday after a failed Russian mercenary mutiny last weekend raised concerns about political instability in Russia and the potential impact on oil supplies from one of the world’s biggest producers.

Asian markets traded lower last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 2.92% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 5.15% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 1.34% for the week.

The Japanese currency, which is often seen as a safe haven asset, is now coming under renewed pressure from sellers, threatening a surge in the value of imports to hit consumers. Japan’s deputy finance minister for international affairs indicated Monday that the government has not ruled out responding to the yen’s excessive movement. The last time Japan conducted a currency intervention to buy the yen was last October.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,348.33 −33.56 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,727.43 −219.28 (−0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 15,829.94 −158.22 (−0.99%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,461.87 −40.16 (−0.54%)

USD Index 102.87 +0.48 (+0.48%)

Important events for today:

– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 11:50 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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The recessionary sentiment is intensifying in the United States. Japanese policymakers are once again talking about intervention