The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0575
• Prev Close: 1.0668
• % chg. over the last day: +0.87 %

A 0.5% rate hike is almost guaranteed at the ECB’s March meeting, and investors are focused on how the ECB will further shape monetary policy. This week’s negative inflation data from France, Spain, and Germany have prompted markets to assess a longer cycle of tightening monetary policy that will see the deposit rate peak at 4%. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said Wednesday in Paris that the final rate should be reached no later than September. Eurostat will publish Eurozone inflation data today. Analysts forecast that overall inflation will fall from 8.6% to 8.3%, while core inflation will remain at an annualized rate of 5.3%.

• Support levels: 1.0644,1.0595, 1.0544
• Resistance levels: 1.0704, 1.0804, 1.0906, 1.0926, 1.0967, 1.1017, 1.1077

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But the price is approaching the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become positive, and buyers’ pressure is increasing. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0644 or 1.0595, but with confirmation on the intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0704 under a false breakout or an impulse return of the price below the 1.0644 level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the resistance level of 1.0704 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC member Waller Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2018
• Prev Close: 1.2026
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07 %

Over the last month, the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector has slightly increased from 49.2 to 49.3. The dynamics of recovery can be traced for the whole quarter, but production is still in contraction territory for more than seven months. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned yesterday that there is “no easy way out” of the UK cost of living crisis, and further interest rate hikes may be needed to combat inflation. Bailey also added that the final decision on interest rates would depend on the latest inflation data.

• Support levels: 1.1984, 1.1929, 1.1875
• Resistance levels: 1.2087, 1.2147, 1.2200, 1.2267, 1.2311, 1.2416

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative. Within the day, sales prevail, but their pressure decreases. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1984, but better with confirmation. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2087 but with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2147 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.