01 Jul

The US inflation is showing signs of slowing, but other economic indicators are decreasing to recessionary levels

July 1, 2022

By JustForex

The inflation rate, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, was 6.3% in May, unchanged from April’s level. Personal spending increased by 0.2% in May, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase, and April’s rate was revised down to 0.6% from 0.9%. Recession fears are growing after the Federal Reserve raised rates to combat rising inflation. Chronically high inflation has become a major threat to the economy and a political danger to President Joe Biden and the Democrats. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.82%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.33% yesterday.

Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise rates more. Scharf praised the Fed for being very clear about the future moves, but the bank CEO still thinks the economy will be unpleasantly surprised by the consequences.

Biden said the US intends to announce an additional $800 million in arms aid to Ukraine.

Stock markets in Europe traded lower yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.69%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.80%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.09%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Thursday down by 1.96%.

Fresh economic data showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 6.6%, down from 6.7% in April 2022. Inflation in France climbed to a record high of 6.5% in June, with consumer price growth of 0.7% last month. Today, Europe will release a preliminary overall inflation figure for the Eurozone, and analysts are leaning that consumer prices will rise from 8.1% to 8.5% year-over-year.

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The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months remains subdued. The KOF economic barometer fell again in June and now stands at 96.9 points. It is below its long-term average for the second time in a row. The barometer’s downward movement is mainly due to a combination of external demand and production indicators.

The value of precious metals fell more than 8% in the second quarter. The fall is due to a tightening of central bank monetary policy. Precious metal prices are inversely correlated with the dollar index and US government bond yields. During monetary tightening, the dollar index strengthens, and government bond yields rise, which leads to a decrease in gold and silver prices.

OPEC+ countries said they would stick to their previously announced production plan, resisting calls to accelerate production. At the same time, oil prices fell another 3%. Analysts believe the drop in oil prices is due to US traders closing positions ahead of a three-day Independence Day weekend in the US on July 4. But fundamentally, such a situation usually leads to higher prices in an environment where production is lower than demand. In Norway, 74 offshore oil workers on the Equinor Gudrun, Oseberg South, and Oseberg East platforms will go on strike starting July 5, the Lederne union said Thursday, which will likely halt about 4% of Norway’s oil production.

Asian markets traded lower on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.54% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.62%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed by 1.97% lower. Japan’s main Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined from 53.3 in May to 52.7 in June. According to the PMI report, Japanese companies noted that rising costs and persistent material shortages contributed to the slowdown in production, and new orders increased only fractionally. Continued supply chain disruptions and delays led to further rapid cost increases, leading to a sharp rise in factory prices, the fastest in the survey’s history. That said, companies are increasingly confident that these problems will dissipate next year as business confidence rose to its highest level since March.

Tokyo’s consumer price level increased from 1.9% to 2.1% annually. Inflation is thus slowly consolidating above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,785.39 −33.44 (−0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 30,775.43 −253.88 (−0.82%%)

DAX (DE40) 12,783.77 −219.58 (−1.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,169.28 −143.04 (−1.96%)

USD Index 104.73 −0.38 (−0.36%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:35 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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