The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0137
• Prev Close: 1.0221
• % chg. over the last day: +0.82%

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone in June 2022 was 8.6%, compared to 8.1% in May. A year earlier, the rate was 1.9%. Malta (6.1%), France (6.5%), and Finland (8.1%) registered the lowest annual rates. The highest annual rates were in Estonia (22.0%), Lithuania (20.5%), and Latvia (19.2%). European Central Bank policymakers are considering raising interest rates by more than 50 basis points at their meeting on Thursday to combat record-high inflation. The euro is strengthening on these expectations.

• Support levels: 1.0147, 1.0106, 1.0035, 1.0000
• Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price has consolidated above the moving averages and broke through the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best to look at intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0147 or 1.0106, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance level 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0000 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1945
• Prev Close: 1.1997
• % chg. over the last day: +0.43%

The latest March-May 2022 labor market estimates show that the employment rate increased over the quarter, while the unemployment rate and economic inactivity decreased in the UK. The March-May 2022 unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The number of job openings from April to June 2022 rose to 1,294,000. However, the rate of job growth continues to slow. Overall, the labor market remains strong, opening up room for the Bank of England to act more aggressively in raising interest rates. The BoE will consider a 0.5% interest rate hike in August, which would accelerate the fight against inflation, Governor Andrew Bailey said in a speech yesterday.

• Support levels: 1.2008, 1.1980, 1.1907, 1.1803
• Resistance levels: 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has also changed to bullish. The price has consolidated above the moving averages and has broken through the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence and fading upward momentum. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2008 or 1.1980, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered intraday from the resistance level of 1.2065, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1803 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 137.99
• Prev Close: 138.18
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

There are no fundamental changes here at the moment. The Bank of Japan maintains a soft monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve is on the path of aggressive interest rate hikes. Such a diametrically opposite policy has already pushed USD/JPY up to 24-year highs. And at least until the end of summer, the monetary policy of the central banks in Japan and the US will remain in place. Inflation data will be released in Japan at the end of this week, which could affect Japan’s Central Bank. But until then, the price will likely balance in a narrow range.

• Support levels: 137.67, 137.43, 137.13, 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
• Resistance levels: 138.71, 140.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is forming a balance. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals within a day from the support level of 137.67, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 138.71 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 137.13, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2971
• Prev Close: 1.2869
• % chg. over the last day: -0.79%

Canada is one of the largest oil producers in the world, with significant reserves. Canada is also the third largest oil exporter: about 99% of its exports go directly to its neighbor, the United States. This is why the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and highly dependent on oil prices and the US Dollar Index. Yesterday, the US Dollar Index continued declining while oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel. This gave confidence to the Canadian currency. Canadian inflation data will be released today, and analysts expect another jump in consumer prices. A strengthening of the national currency usually accompanies a rise in inflation on expectations that the central bank will be more aggressive in raising rates.

• Support levels: 1.2853, 1.2781
• Resistance levels: 1.2934, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bearish. The price has consolidated below the moving lines and has broken down the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and the sellers’ pressure remains, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals are better to consider from the resistance level of 1.2934, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2853, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3085 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).