The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0701
• Prev Close: 1.0716
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14%

The long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. It is highly likely that the ECB will formally announce the end of net asset purchases and schedule the first interest rate hike for July. Analysts are just trying to predict which step of the increase the ECB will choose. But given the conservatism of European politicians and Lagarde’s credibility, the best option is to start with a 0.25% hike. Statistical data also speaks in favor of such a step. The European labor market remains strong, and GDP showed 0.6% growth for the last quarter, higher than the expected 0.3%.

• Support levels: 1.0694, 1.0627, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0738, 1.0770, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is back above zero, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is a slight buying pressure. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0694, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0770, but only after the additional confirmation. The Euro may be very volatile today, so traders should be very attentive.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2589
• Prev Close: 1.2535
• % chg. over the last day: -0.43%

May PMI data indicated another slowdown in the UK construction sector. Weak consumer confidence and worries about the outlook for the economy are holding back demand. Higher borrowing costs and strong inflationary pressures were also cited as factors likely to restrain growth over the next 12 months. At the moment, most UK economic indicators are showing a slowdown.

• Support levels: 1.2498, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
• Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but a slight buying pressure remains. A wide price corridor is forming now. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2498, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 132.54
• Prev Close: 134.24
• % chg. over the last day: +1.28%

The Japanese yen continues to decline against major currencies. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, is keeping policy soft. The US Treasury yields are rising and could rise even higher if US inflation data is worse than forecast on Friday. Rising US yields give confidence to the dollar index. Under current conditions, the Japanese yen is likely to remain depressed against the US dollar in the coming days and weeks. Perhaps the only possibility of a significant bearish reversal of the USD/JPY pair will be a currency intervention by the Japanese government.

• Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
• Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of overbought and divergence. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the average lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 133.00, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 130.13, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2526
• Prev Close: 1.2557
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the dollar index but also on the oil price movements. Oil prices jumped about 3% on Wednesday as gasoline demand in the US continues to grow despite high fuel prices. The fundamental picture is now favorable for both the US dollar and Canadian dollar to strengthen, so do not expect any medium-term trend movements here.

• Support levels: 1.2510
• Resistance levels: 1.2567, 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, and divergence is traced on several time frames. The price is forming a wide sideways. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2510, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2567 or 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).