The wave of positive quarterly reports helped offset an unexpected decline in US economic growth

April 29, 2022

US GDP in the first quarter fell unexpectedly by 1.4% in the first quarter, marking a sharp slowdown in economic growth. But despite the disappointing numbers, markets paid little attention to the report, with stock and bond yields mostly rising. PayPal stock increased more than 10% after its first-quarter results beat analysts’ forecasts, helped by strong growth in payments volume and net new active accounts. McDonald’s Q1 revenue rose 11%, but net income was down. The wave of positive quarterly corporate results helped offset an unexpected slowdown in US economic growth. At the stock market’s close, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.85%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.47%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.06%.

Amazon shares fell 8% after closing due to an unexpected loss in the first quarter and a disappointing earnings outlook for the second quarter. Amazon’s fall was also reflected in declining indices after the stock market’s close.

It is expected that the unforeseen decline in US growth will not affect the Fed’s view, as high inflation will continue to drive policy.

The US House of Representatives finally voted in favor of the lend-lease for Ukraine. Biden must now sign the lend-lease legislation. Specifically, more than $20 billion could go to defense. More than $8 billion is planned for economic support. Another $3 billion will go to humanitarian aid. American analysts believe that the revival of the lend-lease is of great historical significance. In 1941, such an initiative was a decisive factor in allowing the Allies to defeat the Nazis in World War II.

Major European indices traded higher yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.35%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) added 0.98%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.41%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 1.13%. In April, the annual inflation rate in Germany reached a historical record of 7.8%. In Spain, by contrast, the annual inflation rate decreased from 9.8% to 8.4%, indicating that Spain’s economy is less dependent on Russian energy resources than Germany’s. Several other European countries will report on inflation today, and the general figure for the Eurozone will be published. Analysts believe that annual inflation in the Eurozone will reach 7.5% (currently 7.4%).

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Germany may consider including Sberbank in the next package of EU sanctions. Lithuania and Spain favor an EU embargo on Russian oil and gas. German representatives are also ready to agree to a ban on oil imports from Russia if Berlin is given enough time to look for alternative suppliers. Against the background of this news, oil prices jumped by more than $2 per barrel. Now the answer is in OPEC+, which will meet on May 5. According to some analysts, prices may become volatile after the OPEC+ meeting. If representatives don’t increase production, oil prices may continue to rise. But on the other hand, the lockdown in China and the release of strategic reserves by the US and its allies are keeping oil prices from flying to the moon.

According to preliminary information, four European gas buyers have already paid for gas supplies in rubles. Ten companies have opened accounts with Gazprombank, enabling them to comply with the new settlement rules. Europe risks gained rationing if Putin cuts off Russian gas supplies. Hence, the EU must urgently look for an alternative and completely abandon Russia’s energy resources to not be dependent on the state that unleashed a full-scale war against Ukraine.

The Central Bank of Turkey has raised its inflation forecast for late 2022 to 42.8% from 23.2%.

Asian markets ended the day higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.65%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 1.32%. South Korea’s Samsung earned record revenue and increased its net profit by 59% in the first quarter. Prolonged blockages over COVID-19 further slow the Chinese economy, which has hit both the yuan and commodity currencies. The yuan fell to an 18-month low and is on track for a record monthly drop of 4.3%. It’s a bank holiday in Japan today.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,287.50 +103.54 (+2.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,916.39 +614.46 (+1.85%)

DAX (DE40) 13,979.84 +185.90 (+1.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,509.19 +83.58 (+1.13%)

USD Index 103.62 +0.67 (+0.65%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US PCE price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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The wave of positive quarterly reports helped offset an unexpected decline in US economic growth