The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0826
• Prev Close: 1.0891
• % chg. over the last day: +0.60%

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its monetary policy meeting today, and pressure is building on policymakers to start tightening monetary policy as inflation continue to rise in Europe. In Germany, inflation increased by 7.3% year on year, and in Spain, the annual CPI reached 9.8%. Analysts are confident that the ECB will not change anything. However, there may be surprises in the form of immediate termination of the quantitative easing program amid such a spike in inflation.

• Support levels: 1.0847, 1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0946, 1.0958, 1.1027, 1.1075, 1.1135, 1.1196, 1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. Against the dollar index decline background, the price began to show growth. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0847, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.0945, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1075 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate at 14:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 22:50 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2999
• Prev Close: 1.3115
• % chg. over the last day: +0.89%

The surge in inflation in the UK has increased the likelihood of new rate hikes by the Bank of England. Financial participants believe that the Bank of England will almost certainly raise interest rates to 1% at its next meeting on May 5 and then bring them to 2%-2.25% by the end of 2022. The British pound rose sharply amid such aggressive sentiment yesterday.

• Support levels: 1.3053 1.3023
• Resistance levels: 1.3144, 1.3181, 1.3244, 1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. Yesterday the price showed strong bullish initiative and consolidated above the moving average lines. It is only necessary to break through the priority change level to change the trend. The MACD indicator became positive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.3144, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.3053 after the pullback.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3181 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 125.32
• Prev Close: 125.64
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26%

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday that the central bank would continue its ultra-soft monetary policy to support the economy under the pressure of rising import costs. The fundamental picture for the Japanese Yen remains unchanged. The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now “ultra-soft” and aims to decrease the national currency rate (USD/JPY growth). The US Fed will tighten monetary policy more aggressively. The medium-term forecast remains unchanged – analysts see a continuation of the uptrend, as the monetary policies of the central banks in the United States and Japan are now opposed.

• Support levels: 124.66, 124.24, 122.97, 122.63, 121.81
• Resistance levels: 125.82

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buyer pressure is decreasing. But the price has deviated very much from the moving averages. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 124.66 or 124.24, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 125.82 may be considered for sell deals.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 122.97, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2642
• Prev Close: 1.2562
• % chg. over the last day: -0.64%

Like many countries worldwide, Canada is struggling with high inflation – the latest consumer price report showed that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years. Together with a strong labor market, such indicators left the central bank with no choice but to raise interest rates. Moreover, the Bank of Canada immediately raised the interest rate from 0.5% to 1%. At a press conference, the Bank of Canada Governor said they were ready to act as decisively as necessary to achieve the inflation target and return to the neutral range of 2% and 3%. An increase in the national currency rate is accompanied by an increase in interest rates in the medium term. But as the US Federal Reserve also raises interest rates, the fundamental picture for the USD/CAD currency pair does not have a single dynamic.

• Support levels: 1.2538, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2644, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there are signs of sellers’ strength. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2538, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2610, but it is better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2467, the downtrend will likely be resumed.