by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1086
- Prev Close: 1.1157
- % chg. over the last day: +0.64%
Spain’s consumer price index jumped from 7.6% to 9.8% year on year. This is the highest value in 30 years. Inflation if Germany rose in March to its highest level in more than 40 years due to higher prices for natural gas and oil products. The annual consumer price index was 7.3% against 5.1% in February. Such a jump in inflation in the EU countries may force the ECB to reconsider its monetary policy towards tightening. That is why the European currency is reacting higher as investors are already considering a tightening scenario. The higher the interest rates, the stronger the national exchange rate.
- Support levels: 1.1136, 1.1037, 1.1017, 1.0963, 1.0917, 1.0887, 1.0823, 1.0633
- Resistance levels: 1.1196, 1.1291
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, the buyers’ pressure has intensified. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support levels of 1.1037 or 1.1018 around the moving averages. Sell trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1196, but only after a false breakout and only with short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1017 support level and fixes below, the uptrend will likely be broken.
- – German Retail Sales at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speech at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3083
- Prev Close: 1.3135
- % chg. over the last day: +0.39%
UK GDP grew by 1.3% in Q4, a growth of 1% was expected. But economic indicators now have little effect on the economy. Geopolitics and the health of the dollar index came out on top. And as geopolitical tensions persist in Eastern Europe and the US Federal Reserve intends to aggressively tighten monetary policy, these factors combine to hurt the British pound.
- Support levels: 1.3117, 1.3074, 1.3015, 1.2989, 1.2863
- Resistance levels: 1.3181, 1.3244, 1.3274
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish. The price movement pattern starts to show a flat structure. The MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3117, but better with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3161, but only with short targets.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3074 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 122.87
- Prev Close: 121.82
- % chg. over the last day: -0.86%
The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now “ultra-soft” and is aimed at decreasing the national currency rate (USD/JPY growth). But against the backdrop of the dollar index, and also thanks to the work of the Central Bank of Japan on the debt market, the Japanese yen is now temporarily strengthening. The medium-term forecast remains unchanged – analysts see a continuation of the uptrend.
- Support levels: 120.88, 119.52, 117.72
- Resistance levels: 122.83, 123.44,125.22
The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But amid the decline in the dollar index, the price began a corrective movement. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 120.88, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, a resistance level of 122.83 or 123.44 may be considered, but only after the sellers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 119.52, the uptrend will likely be broken.
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2491
- Prev Close: 1.2481
- % chg. over the last day: -0.08%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. The weekly drop-in crude oil inventories were accompanied by the release of almost the same amount of oil from the US reserves, which led to a slight decrease in oil prices yesterday. As a result, the USD/CAD pair jumped yesterday, despite a decline in the dollar index. OPEC+ producing countries will meet today. However, analysts do not expect anything substantial from this meeting and are confident that OPEC+ will not increase oil production since high oil prices are beneficial to almost all producing countries except the US.
- Support levels: 1.2453
- Resistance levels: 1.2563, 1.2655, 1.2713, 1.2754, 1.2851
In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. The MACD indicator has become positive. The buyer’s pressure has increased. Trade only with short targets, since on the USD/CAD currency pair fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend, as the dollar index in the medium-term also has the support of the Fed. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2453, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2563.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2654, the downtrend will likely be broken.
- – OPEC+ Meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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