The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1721
• Prev Close: 1.1688
• % chg. over the last day: -0.28%

Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve plans to start cutting its QE program soon, the Fed is still expecting confident economic growth. The Fed predicts that high inflation will remain for a few more months but then return to the target level. But if inflation continues to rise, the Fed will act more decisively.

• Support levels: 1.1704, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish, but it is very close to its end. Yesterday, the price even broke through the level below but failed to consolidate. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, buy deals can be considered from the priority change level. It is best to look for sell trades throughout the day, from the resistance zone near the moving average or after the breakdown of priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – German Service PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• – US Service PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3656
• Prev Close: 1.3616
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29%

The dollar index strengthened after the Fed meeting, which caused major currency pairs to fall against the US dollar. The British pound decreased by 0.29% yesterday. Today, the Bank of England holds a meeting where the monetary policy statement and the interest rate decision will be published. No surprises are expected, most likely, everything will remain as it is, but volatility will be higher.

• Support levels: 1.3629, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3701, 1.3769, 1.3812, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average line. Buy deals should be considered only intraday and only with short targets from the buyers’ initiative zone.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3812 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.20
• Prev Close: 109.80
• % chg. over the last day: +0.55%

The USD/JPY currency pair sharply jumped yesterday amid a rise in the dollar index. Today is the bank holiday in Japan, so the volatility of currency pairs with the Japanese yen will be lower than usual.

• Support levels: 109.52, 109.28, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 109.88, 110.09, 110.40, 110.66, 110.95

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Due to the fact that the Bank of Japan did not cut its easing program, the Japanese Yen lost some of its positions. The MACD indicator has become positive, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, traders should look for sell positions from the resistance level. Only intraday buy positions from the support levels should be considered, where there is an initiative of buyers.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 110.09, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2812
• Prev Close: 1.2774
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Both the dollar index and oil sharply increased yesterday, but oil quotes were more influential. As a result, the Canadian dollar gained some strength.

• Support levels: 1.2726, 1.2646, 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

From the technical point of view, the situation is uncertain, but there is a slight dominance of upward movement. The MACD indicator is inactive. The MACD indicator has become inactive too. Under such market conditions, it is better to trade within the local trend, which is obviously bullish. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average. There are no optimal entry points for sell positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).