by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1763
- Prev Close: 1.1716
- % chg. over the last day: -0.40%
The euro continues to show negative dynamics and looks the weakest among major currencies. The price reached November 5 lows, and the dollar index broke through two important resistances, paving the way for further growth. After the positive CB report, the pair may remain under pressure until Friday, when the US labor market data is released.
- Support levels: 1.1688, 1.1601
- Resistance levels: 1.1889, 1.1990
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. Technical indicators show strong southward pressure in the medium term. But a short-term pullback from the 1.1688 support level is possible. A divergence has formed on the MACD, which is the first sign of an upcoming correction or stop. But while the pair is below 1.1770, the south direction will be the main one.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1770, the pair may start a corrective rise to 1.1889 or higher.
- – German Unemployment Change (Mar) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (Mar) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) at 15:15 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3759
- Prev Close: 1.3736
- % chg. over the last day: -0.17%
The sterling is struggling to move south, which suggests that the fundamentals for the pair’s growth in the long term are still present. Despite the significant growth of the dollar, the pound could not overcome the lows of March 25 and is still trading in the weekly range.
- Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3610
- Resistance levels: 1.3812, 1.3846
The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. Technical indicators point to the continuation of weak downward dynamics. The price has consolidated below the moving averages, but other indicators point to the likelihood of a sideways trend. Based on a combination of factors, there is a moderate southern signal.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3760, the pound may resume its growth to 1.3812.
- – The UK GDP (q/q) (4 q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) at 15:15 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 109.79
- Prev Close: 110.35
- % chg. over the last day: +0.51%
In the dollar-yen pair, volatility has increased significantly. The pair shows a strong upward trend amid data from the manufacturing sector in China, growth in government bond yields, and the dollar index. Having broken through important resistance levels, the dollar-yen headed to last year’s highs.
- Support levels: 109.38, 108.35
- Resistance levels: 111.71, 112.24
The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the H1, the H4, and the D1 timeframes still shows bullish pressure growth. Convergence formed on the MACD after growth in the Asian session. Nevertheless, the pair is in the area of short-term overvaluation, which may cause the growth to stop.
An alternative scenario implies price fixing below 110.06. In this case, the pair could drop to 109.38.
- – China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Mar) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
- – The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) at 15:15 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2586
- Prev Close: 1.2629
- % chg. over the last day: +0.34%
Following oil quotes, the Canadian dollar fell slightly against the US dollar. However, the pair continues to remain in a narrow range. The price was unable to overcome the moving averages on the daily chart, which increased the likelihood of early completion of the northern correction.
- Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
- Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2745
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2546 and 1.2629. The ADX is at its minimum values, and the MACD is slightly above zero, which gives a very weak northern signal. The price has consolidated above the moving averages, and, nevertheless, all the north indicators are very weak, which indicates the development of a sideways movement.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2546, the pair may resume its southern movement to 1.2466.
- – The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – The US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:30 (GMT+3).
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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