by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1902
- Prev Close: 1.1979
- % chg. over the last day: +0.65%
In the American session on Wednesday, the euro leveled out the entire three-day decline against the dollar. The Fed chairman’s comments disappointed the foreign exchange market. The difference in response to rising bond yields between the FOMC and the ECB is minimal. But, in light of higher market expectations, the dollar may continue to decline in the short term.
- Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1746
- Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2113
The main scenario for EUR/USD is buying. The ADX showed a very weak reaction to the northern impulse during the American session. However, the MACD has risen significantly, and the price is holding above the moving averages. A slight pullback in the Asian session and an attempt at further growth indicate the influence of bulls.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.1924, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1834.
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3889
- Prev Close: 1.3957
- % chg. over the last day: +0.49%
The reaction to the Fed meeting results was less significant in this pair compared to the euro. There is a possibility that the decision on the monetary policy of the Bank of England, which will be published today, will be about the same as the Fed’s decision. In this light, the sterling may come under pressure.
- Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
- Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224
The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3857 and 1.3997. Wednesday evening’s northern impulse changed nothing. The instrument remained in the same range. The ADX shows the low value of the northward movement potential.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume growth to the year’s highs.
- – Bank of England meeting minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 108.98
- Prev Close: 108.84
- % chg. over the last day: -0.13%
The Japanese yen rose the least against the dollar among the G10 currencies. The reason for such a slight reaction in the pair lies in the growth of stock indices. The market for risky assets is optimistic, which supports the bulls in the dollar-yen pair.
- Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
- Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the hourly timeframe is kept at the minimum values. There is a likelihood of a quick resumption of the pair’s growth, but in the context of a decline in the dollar index, a corrective pullback to the 108.35 support level is possible.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08. A breakdown of 109.34 will resume growth.
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2438
- Prev Close: 1.2403
- % chg. over the last day: -0.28%
The pair continues to fall steadily, as all the main fundamental factors are in favor of the bears. Although the oil market is correcting, oil quotes remain above the February high. The Fed’s decision only added to the bearish pressure.
- Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2250
- Resistance levels: 1.2466, 1.2512
The main scenario is selling. On Wednesday’s southern impulse, the ADX showed a strong reaction. The breakout of this year’s low and the steady price fixation below indicate a further decline all the way to the January 2015 lows.
Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above 1.2466, the pair may develop an upward correction to 1.2512.
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) at 14:30 (GMT+2).
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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