The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2114
• Prev Close: 1.2156
• % chg. over the last day: +0.35%.

The growth of all three indicators of the ease of doing business in Germany from the IFO institute has become a driver for building up long positions in euros. Since not only expectations have grown, but also the assessment of the current situation, the growth of the currency seems to be quite justified. At the same time, the breakthrough of the support levels by the dollar index indicates the likelihood of continued growth in the pair in the medium term.

• Support levels: 1.2091, 1.2081
• Resistance levels: 1.2189, 1.2222

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is buying. The 1.2169 level was broken, which indicates an increased likelihood of the completion of the southern correction and the renewal of the northern trend in the medium term. The ADX shows strengths of bullish potential above average.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.2138, the pair may return to the decline to 1.2081.

• – The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4013
• Prev Close: 1.4060
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34%

On Monday, the pound continued to rise and once again set new records, reaching 1.4085. In the absence of important economic news for the British currency, the pair followed the main direction of the market, set by the euro.

• Support levels: 1.3819, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4150

The main scenario in the GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.4100 and 1.3970. Despite strong growth, bulls need to be vigilant. The higher the pair, the lower the ADX goes. This is a wake-up call for buyers. At the very least, a stop is possible, as the trend potential has decreased to minimum values.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3970, it may return to 1.3819. A breakthrough of the 1.4100 level could send the pair towards 1.4150.

• – The Average Earnings Including Bonuses in the UK at 09:00 (Dec) (GMT+2);
• – Changes in the UK Jobless Claims at 09:00 (Jan) (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 105.39
• Prev Close: 105.05
• % chg. over the last day: -0.33%

Following the decline in the stock market, the dollar-yen pair fell on Monday. On the D1 timeframe, a bearish engulfing candlestick has formed, which indicates the increased strength of sellers in this pair. However, it is too early to talk about the return of the instrument to the long-term southern trend.

• Support levels: 104.40, 103.56
• Resistance levels: 105.84, 106.22

The main scenario is selling. Now everything looks like a deep pullback after last week’s rally. The ADX shows a significant reaction only on the H1 timeframe. Older timeframes show “calmness”. This indicates limited downside potential towards 104.40.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing above 105.35. In this case, the pair may resume growth to 105.84.

• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2608
• Prev Close: 1.2613
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

The pair showed surprising results, as it not only went against the trend of the entire market, but also against the fundamental background. The rise in prices on the oil market could not accelerate the fall of the pair. On the contrary, the trades closed in positive territory. But ignoring the underlying fundamental background may turn out to be short-term. The southern direction remains the main one for the USD/CAD.

• Support levels: 1.2580, 1.2550
• Resistance levels: 1.2665, 1.2745

The main scenario is selling up to 1.2550. The pair did not reach the main support at 1.2550 within the day. At the same time, the ADX showed a decrease in bearish potential. But as long as the price is below the moving averages, the likelihood of a smooth decline is high.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above 1.2665, the pair may rise to 1.2745.