The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2118
• Prev Close: 1.2130
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%.

EUR/USD currency pair managed to increase a bit at the end of the day. The weekly gain has slowed down significantly, and intraday volatility has decreased to 40 pips. One of the reasons for this situation is the decrease in liquidity. At the end of the week, the Chinese market closed until next week. A calm trading atmosphere can be expected today.

• Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1952
• Resistance levels: 1.2155, 1.2189

The main trading scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.2111 – 1.2155. The MACD gradually declined to zero. The ADX is seamlessly decreasing to minimum values. At the same time, the price shows minor fluctuations near the SMA 50. This suggests that the bullish scenario remains in the medium term, but intraday trading in a narrow sideways range can be expected.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below the level of 1.2111, the pair may return to the zone of 1.2072 – 1.2059. A break-through of 1.2155 might send the pair towards 1.2189.

• – University of Michigan United States Consumer Sentiment (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3831
• Prev Close: 1.3813
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

The sterling closed the day in the red zone by contrast with the euro. Disagreements with the European Union regarding the trade with Northern Ireland are beginning to put pressure on the British currency. The problem in this region wasn’t resolved until the UK officially left the EU. During Thursday’s meeting, the ministers failed to come to a common decision again, which puts pressure on the profitability of the British Gilts and the GBP quotes.

• Support levels: 1.3757, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3866, 1.3900

The main scenario in GBP/USD is selling. Although the medium-term north trend is still strong, the intraday picture looks bearish. The ADX reacted to the decline in quotations significantly, while the MACD moved into the negative zone. The price is preparing to fix below SMA 100. These are all the signs of a progressing correction.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes above 1.3825, it may return to 1.3866.

• – UK GDP (q/q) (q4) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 104.57
• Prev Close: 104.73
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

The dollar-yen currency pair showed a slight pullback on Thursday. The stock market is completely calm, which allows the bulls to take a little break. There won’t be any important data, and low volatility trading might be observed today.

• Support levels: 104.40, 103.56
• Resistance levels: 105.68, 106.12

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 104.95 – 104.40. The MACD has gradually moved into the positive zone, but other indicators remain in equilibrium. The price keeps between the moving averages, and the ADX is near the minimum values.

An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.95. In this case, the pair may rise to 105.68. A break-through of 104.40 could send the pair down to 103.56.

• – University of Michigan United States Consumer Sentiment (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2697
• Prev Close: 1.2699
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

The Canadian dollar is gradually falling amid a pullback in the oil market. Brent and WTI oil fell by almost $1, which allows developing a slight correction in the pair. But there is no talk about a reversal yet. The oil market is still in an uptrend.

• Support levels: 1.2666, 1.2590
• Resistance levels: 1.2781, 1.2844

The main scenario is risk-averse buyings. The ADX reacted to yesterday’s bounce mildly, which indicates a weak bullish sentiment. But the price was able to fix above the moving averages and this gives a signal for a gradual rise to 1.2781.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix below 1.2695, the pair may resume its decline to the resistance level of 1.2666.