The BTC is declining smoothly. On Monday, it is balancing near 19,427 USD.
On Monday, the leading crypto is very restrained. It is a day off in the US today, so a part of investors will be away from the market. This can cause a decline in the volatility.
There are still very few chances for the BTC to grow. To rise higher, it needs to step over the key resistance level of 21,500 USD. For now, the crypto is most likely to stay inside a sideways channel between 19,000 and 20,000 USD.
Capitalisation of the crypto market has dropped to 904.12 billion USD. The BTC takes up 41.2% of it, the ETH — 17.91%, and the USDT — 7.55%. Curiously enough, the part taken by the XRP has grown noticeably over a week, now reaching 2.92%.
Over last week, the one token that has grown the most is the CSPR (+25.26%). Number two is the ENS (+24.06%). Both coins has entered the Top 100 list of the crypto market.
BTC hashrate has grown noticeably
The BTC hashrate has reached 10.8%, which is the new all-time high. This is good for both the safety and efficacy of the network. The complexity of the hashrate is though to be based on the computing power of the network. When the hashrate grows, it must be some powerful equipment joining the network that lets miners get coins and reward with fewer expenses.
Salvador criticizes those who doubt
President of Salvador confirmed that his decision to include the BTC in the country’s financial system was correct. Simultaneously, he criticized those who was against crypto as payment units. The leader of Salvador thinks that if the experiment succeeds, other countries may join in.
DeFi startup attracts financing
The Arch decentralised startup attracted 5 million USD during the first round of financing. The idea of the startup includes buying a smart contract that users can store on their own.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Heightened market volatility until the end of the year will be used by cryptocurrency investors to bolster Bitcoin and Ether holdings, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.
deVere Group’s Nigel Green’s comments come as central banks around the world plan further interest rate hikes before the close of 2022.
He notes: “Markets are now predicting that policymakers at major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England, are likely to remain resolute in pumping up interest rates in their battle to beat down unexpectedly stubborn inflation.
“Five powerful officials of the world’s most influential central bank, the Fed, in comments made on Thursday, maintained a hawkish theme that inflation remains far too high and they won’t be put off raising rates.
“We expect a 75 basis-point hike when they gather November 1-2.
“Meanwhile, members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee have been delivering pretty clear hints that they will push through a big increase in rates when the MPC next meets on November 3.”
Typically, higher interest rates mean stock markets decline in value because companies will borrow less money. The result is their earnings will grow at a slower rate than investors previously expected. This has a ripple effect across most sectors of the stock market with some notable exceptions, such as financials.
“Given Bitcoin and Ether’s current correlation with stock markets, we anticipate further, perhaps heightened, volatility in the crypto market before the end of 2022,” says the deVere CEO.
“However, for serious investors this will not necessarily be seen as a bad thing.”
He continues: “The major investors, including institutional ones, will treat it in the same way as turbulence in any other market.
“Some of the world’s best investors consistently use market volatility as major buying opportunities in traditional financial markets – and the cryptocurrency market is now no different.”
“When used effectively and efficiently, volatility can be an extremely powerful investment strategy.”
History shows that Bitcoin gains have been enormous for those who hold during market turbulence, he goes on to add.
“Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset class in the world, and has consistently ranked amongst the best for both traditional and crypto investment sectors over the last few years.”
Compared to other top tech names over the last five years, we see Bitcoin has 355.22% higher returns than Amazon, 321.97% more than Google, while the asset out-performed Microsoft with returns of 182.65% and overshadowed Apple by 166.76%.
Nigel Green concludes: “Savvy, long-term crypto investors will be looking to benefit from panic-sellers by buying their digital currencies ‘on the cheap’ to enhance their investment portfolios.
“Serious investors will not be spooked by further volatility. This isn’t their first rodeo.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.
BTC is falling again. On Friday, the asset is mostly trading at $19,921.
The current market situation is quite usual. Global market players are trying to avoid risks in stock markets, so they are currently not interested in crypto assets. The correlation between S&P 500/NASDAQ and the BTC remains quite strong.
American investors are once again bringing the US FOMC’s future moves in questions. At the same time, there were neither signals indicating a change in sentiment, nor the frustrating statistics. Most likely, investors hoped for a longer rebound. However, but when it became clear the rebound wouldn’t last long, market players were overwhelmed with disappointment.
Technically, the area between $18,000 and $19,000 remains a strong support zone. Until now, it managed to prevent “bears” from attacking.
The BTC miners’ reserves hit the lows
The number of coins held by the BTC miners dropped to the 10-year low, 1.92 million BTCs. Experts compare this with the tendency to sell cryptocurrency.
Holders are waiting in the wings
At the same time, holders – long-term investors – accumulated a record-breaking amount of cryptocurrencies. According to Ask Invest, they control at least 13.7 million coins, which is about 71.5% of the entire BTC volume offered in the market.
Norway will cancel the benefits for miners
Norwegian Ministry of Finance is thinking of cancelling the benefits for miners. This might add about $14 million to the country’s budget. At the moment, data centres that are involved in mining are paying for electricity at a reduced rate.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The BTC recovered pretty much, but doesn’t want to follow the American stock market. On Wednesday, the asset is mostly fluctuating at $20,238.
So, the major crypto was supported from two sides: a rebound of the American exchanges and a correction in the DXY.
All technical aspects for the BTC remain pretty much the same, without any significant changes. In order for the rebound to transform into a proper growth, the asset must break the resistance at $21,000 and secure above $22,000. A major support area is still at $18,000-$19,000.
What’s next? We should keep a close eye on what will happen to global trends. Stock markets are highly unlikely to continue rising systematically, because the fundamental background hasn’t changed. The rates are rising, so is inflation, and the future prospects for companies and enterprises are still rather vague. However, the data released yesterday showed a slight slowdown in the US labour market, which may prevent the Fed from being aggressive in tightening its monetary policy. Any optimistic vibe is now looking very fragile, that’s why investors are very careful about buying.
Binance is launching a product for XRP
Crypto exchange Binance added the XRP to the list of products for bi-currency investments. It’s a double investment product, which helps to receive more profit during the subscription period regardless of the price movements.
DOGE is in demand again
DOGE has made Top 3 of the most profitable cryptos in the last 24 hours – it has gained over 8%. The market capitalisation has risen to $8.64 billion, while the daily transaction volume was $960 million.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
On Monday, the BTC is balancing near 19,093 USD, slightly growing.
The market situation is not changing. The area between 18,000-19,000 USD remains the range of important support levels, and all the bearish attacks until now failed to break through the lower border of the channel. To go confidently and consistently, the BTC must rise above 22,000 USD.
There is definitely some issue with the correlation between the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the BTC. The US market is sliding down without a pause or hope. Then why the BTC is not falling, if the connection between these two is still tight? The thing is, last week the US dollar index got weak, and it somehow smoothed out the negative influence of the S&P 500 decline.
Keep an eye on the DXY, anyway.
Totally, over Q3 the BTC lost 2.61% of its weight. Over September, the leading crypto dropped by 3.13%.
This week, the US stock market, namely, its reaction to statistics, will attract a lot of attention. A bunch of employment market reports for September are due. These reports are important for the Federal Reserve System, hence, reactions might be emotional.
Capitalisation of the crypto market today is 885.65 billion USD.
NFT: is the bubble ready to burst?
In September, the NFT trading volume amounted to 466 million USD, while in January this year, it was about 17 billion USD. In August already, the trading volume dropped abruptly to 9.34 million – against 2.7 billion in May. Investors seem to be discouraged by digital assets.
Ethereum network will be updated
The Ethereum network is getting prepared for 4 updates – Surge, Verge, Purge, and Splurge. They are to improve the scalability of the network and its safety. As soon as all updates are complete, Ethereum will be able to process up to 100 thousand transactions a second – against 20 transactions a second now.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Yesterday, the BTC did try to grow and even reached $20,381, but couldn’t keep the momentum and dropped to $18,759.
The key market driver for cryptos is the correlation with the American stock market, which has nothing to show right now – the stock market is overwhelmed by bears. Due to the rate hikes, conditions for companies and enterprises are slowly worsening, having huge influence on the stocks. Stock markets are falling and everything else is following.
We’d like to remind you there will be two more meeting to be held by the US Fed. Each of them might end with a rate hike. By the end of 2022, the rate is expected to reach 4.00%.
Technically, the range between $18,000 and $19,000 is once again on the radar as the area of strong supports. Until now, this range managed to weaken the bearish pressure, so we’ll see what happens now. The main scenario remains the same – to start a proper growth, the BTC must fix above $22,000.
The capitalisation of the crypto market dropped to $880,06 billion, and the share of the BTC is 40.87%, while the ETH takes up no more than 17.89%. The third place is occupied by the USDT (7.71%).
US Fed: no decisions for the digital USD
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the media yesterday that the regulator didn’t make any decisions to promote CBDC in the country. At the moment, the Fed is focused of politics and technologies.
Greece promotes crypto ATMs
Greece is ranked sixth in Europe in the number of crypto ATMs – 64 units, mostly in Athens and Thessaloniki. However, the country’s population is not very aware of cryptocurrencies – only 1.87% of Greeks use digital assets.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The BTC is trying to recover, but its hopes were shipwrecked. Yesterday, the major crypto gained almost 4%, but today it is retreating to $19,065. We’ve already told earlier that important support level at $18,000-$19000 “survived”. However, the BTC still stands a good chance to reach this range, because there are no good reasons to buy it.
To reverse and start a proper growth, the BTC must fix above $21,500, and $22,000 would be even better.
The BTC’s still has a strong correlation with the S&P 500 index, which is expected to continue falling. Investors aren’t interested in risky assets right now due to negative external background.
Ripple: the struggle continues
The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple won’t be brought into a jury courtб because the judge has enough proof to deliver a verdict. It’s a good sign for Ripple: it means that the parties have no controversy on particular facts. Yesterday, the XRP leaped up 30%; today it gained almost 4%.
Ethereum merge didn’t help NFT
NFT projects got no positive boost after the Ethereum upgrade. This assumption was made based on the fact that Ethereum dominates as a basis for NFT projects in most cases. Lack of interest to NFT is unusual: the upgrade to PoS was expected to attract potential investors.
Novogratz: the low in ETH is ahead
Billionaire Mike Novogratz believes that after successful upgrade of Ethereum, the ETH is very close to the bottom. However, he isn’t expecting a dramatic decline in the BTC.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
A year ago, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender – alongside the US dollar, which the Central American country adopted in 2001 to replace its own currency, the colón.
President Nayib Bukele, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, promoted the initiative as one that would deliver multiple economic benefits.
Making Bitcoin legal tender, he said, would attract foreign investment, generate jobs and help “push humanity at least a tiny bit into the right direction”.
His ambitions extended to building an entire “Bitcoin city” – a tax-free haven funded by issuing US$1 billion in government bonds. The plan was to spend half the bond revenue on the city, and the other half on buying Bitcoin, with assumed profits then being used to repay the bondholders.
Now, a year on, there’s more than enough evidence to conclude Bukele – who has also called himself “the world’s coolest dictator” in response to criticisms of his creeping authoritarianism – had no idea what he was doing.
This bold financial experiment has proven to be an almost complete failure.
Making Bitcoin legal tender
Making Bitcoin legal tender meant much more than allowing Bitcoin to be used for transactions. That was already possible, as it is in most (but far from all) countries.
If a Salvadoran wanted to pay for something in bitcoins, and the recipient was willing to accept them, they could.
But Bukele wanted more. Making bitcoins legal tender meant a payee had to accept them. As the 2021 legislation stated, “every economic agent must accept Bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever acquires a good or service”.
To encourage Bitcoin uptake, the government created an app called “Chivo Wallet” (“chivo” is slang for “cool”) to trade bitcoins for dollars without transaction fees. It also came preloaded with US$30 as a bonus (the median weekly income is about US$360).
Yet despite the law and these incentives, Bitcoin has not been embraced.
Greeted with little enthusiasm
A nationally representative survey of 1,800 Salvadoran households in February indicated just 20% of the population was using Chivo Wallet for Bitcoin transactions. More than double that number downloaded the app, but only to claim the US$30.
Among respondents who identified as business owners, just 20% said they were accepting bitcoins as payment. These were typically large companies (among the top 10% of companies by size).
A survey for the El Salvador Chamber of Commerce in March found only 14% of businesses were transacting using Bitcoin.
Making huge losses
Fortunately for Salvadorans, nothing has come of the US$1 billion Bitcoin bonds scheme. But the Bukele government has still spent more than US$100 million buying bitcoins – which are now worth less than US$50 million.
When Bukele announced his plans in July 2021, Bitcoin’s value was about US$35,000. By the time the legislation came into effect, on September 7 2021, it was about US$45,000. Two months later, it peaked at US$64,400.
Now it is trading at around US$20,000.
Bukele has made self-congratulatory tweets about “buying the dip” but almost all the bitcoins bought by the government have been for more than US$30,000, at an average price of more than US$40,000.
A year ago, Bukele was urging his citizens to hold their money in bitcoins. For anyone who did, the losses would be devastating.
Flawed analyses
Bukele’s misunderstanding of Bitcoin – and economics more generally – has been demonstrated repeatedly.
In June 2021 he tweeted: “Bitcoin has a market cap of US$680 billion. If 1% of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase our GDP by 25%.”
This suggests he seemed to think Bitcoin was some sort of investment fund. It also showed he did not understand GDP. Foreign investment is not a component of GDP. There has been no surge in foreign investment nor GDP.
In a January 2022 tweet he argued a “gigantic price increase is just a matter of time” because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins while there are 50 million millionaires in the world. “Imagine when each one of them decides they should own at least ONE #Bitcoin,” he proclaimed. Bitcoin’s value has since halved.
The rest of the world is not impressed
The Bitcoin plan has adversely affected El Salvador’s credit rating and relations with the International Monetary Fund. With investors more wary of lending to the country, local borrowers have had to offer higher interest rates.
In January the IMF urged El Salvador to reverse Bitcoin’s legal lender status because of the “large risks for financial and market integrity, financial stability and consumer protection”. Bitcoin is notorious for its use in scams and other illegal activities, as well as its volatility.
Bukele tweeted a dismissive response involving a Simpsons-themed meme.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s response to the IMF’s warnings about the risk of making Bitcoin legal tender. Twitter, CC BY
This seems particularly rash, given El Salvador has been seeking a loan of more than $1 billion from the IMF.
International credit rating agencies Fitch has downgraded El Salvador’s credit rating this year, citing concerns about its Bitcoin policies.
No other country with its own currency, not even ones such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela with discredited currencies, has followed suit and made Bitcoin legal tender.
Given El Salvador’s record, it is is unikely any ever will.
The Ethereum Merge is a “landmark, historic moment” for the entire cryptocurrency market that will be a “major catalyst” driving prices higher in the long term, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.
The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the long-awaited so-called Merge of the world’s second-largest crypto, Ethereum, has just happened.
The Merge is a major overhaul and switch over to a new operating model that will use 99.9% less energy and will reduce supply of the crypto.
He says: “The years-in-the-making Merge, a network-wide, grand scale upgrade is here.
“This is far-reaching overhaul of the most commercially important blockchain in the digital asset ecosystem is probably the most important, landmark event in crypto history, since the launch of Bitcoin.
“It transforms Ethereum from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake mechanism, which lowers transaction costs, enables the network to process more transactions in a shorter amount of time, and will slash energy consumption by a massive 99%.”
The deVere CEO and high-profile cryptocurrency advocate predicts that the “historic occurrence” will fuel prices across the market.
“Whilst some of the news has been priced-in already, let there be no mistake: this event will be a major catalyst driving prices higher in the long term,” he affirms.
“The slashing of energy consumption will be the main reason as it will become significantly more appealing to institutional investors, who bring with them enormous capital, expertise and reputational pull.
“Those institutional investors who have been sitting on the sidelines are now likely to move in.”
He goes on to add: “Besides having a more positive climate impact, The Merge’s effect of reducing supply, cutting costs and speeding up transactions will also appeal to both individuals and institutions.
“Due to the significance of The Merge, we expect the developments to bolster prices across the wider crypto market to some degree.”
Nigel Green has for many years spoken about the potential of Ethereum. He has previously spoken in the media about it “being more useful than Bitcoin and having tech advantages over its better-known rival.”
He concludes: “The Merge represents a major boost not just for Ethereum but for blockchain technology itself.
“This is a momentous day for crypto.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.
The BTC has experienced a new decline. On Wednesday, the leading cryptocurrency is balancing near 20,303 USD though yesterday it rose to 22,780 USD.
Yesterday the USD reversed abruptly after the US inflation statistics came out. The CPI in the US in August turned out to be 8.3% y/y while the forecast level had been 8.1%. Base inflation leaped up to the high of March, 6.3% y/y.
After such statistics were published, market expectations of the interest rate of the US Fed worsened quite a bit. Investors are now 86% sure that the rate will grow by 75 base points in September. There is even a forecast about growth by 100 base points at once, but the probability of such an event is just 14%.
Over the nearest two days, investors will try to play back the losses. If this does not happen, the bears will be heading for 20,000 USD and then – to 18,000 USD. For growth to become possible again, the BTC needs to return above 22,500 USD.
Terra Classic: new uptrend
The Terra Classic token (LUNC) yesterday turned out to be the only crypto out of the Top 30 list that demonstrated growth. While other digital assets were selling, the token grew by 20%, reversing the decline that started on weekend.
North Island Ventures starts new fund
An investment company North Island Ventures that invests in crypto announced a launch of a new fund. It will be sized 125 million USD. The company plans to invest the money in new crypto and Web3 companies and protocols at early stages.
Binance will distribute tokens of Ethereum PoW fork
The Binance crypto exchange plans to distribute among ETH holders the tokens of the Ethereum PoW fork after The Merge update comes in force. The fork tokens will be deposited as 1 to 1. Withdrawal will become available a bit later.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
