10-Year Treasury Note Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets to 160-week high

November 21, 2020

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10-Year Note Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

10-Year Note Large Trader Net Positions:

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

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The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 152,319 contracts in the data reported through November 17 2020. This was a weekly rise of 57,703 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,059 contracts (to a weekly total of 587,470 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -27,644 contracts for the week (to a total of 435,151 contracts).

The 10-Year speculators sharply raised their bullish bets this week for a second consecutive week. The speculator position has now gained by a total of +158,009 net contracts in just the past two weeks and brings the current bullish standing to its highest level in the past one hundred and sixty weeks, dating all the way back to October 24th of 2017.

The large speculators Strength Index level (chart below), the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 100.0 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

TRADER TYPE DATA:	SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4
– Net Position:	152,319
– Gross Longs:	587,470
– Gross Shorts:	435,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -103,569 contracts. This was a weekly change of -50,512 contracts from the total net of -53,057 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish-Extreme level with a score of 7.8 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

TRADER TYPE DATA:	COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.3
– Net Position:	-103,569
– Gross Longs:	2,181,114
– Gross Shorts:	2,284,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -48,750 contracts. This was a weekly change of -7,191 contracts from the total net of -41,559 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.0 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

TRADER TYPE DATA:	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9
– Net Position:	-48,750
– Gross Longs:	371,509
– Gross Shorts:	420,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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